新冠肺炎大流行期间儿科损伤相关急诊科表现的变化

R. Lystad, A. Fyffe, R. Orr, G. Browne
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在量化新冠肺炎大流行前两年(即2020年和2021年)一家大型大都市儿科医院与儿童伤害相关的急诊科(ED)表现的变化。这项回顾性队列研究包括在2010年1月1日至2021年12月31日期间在澳大利亚新南威尔士州悉尼Westmead儿童医院接受急诊的≤15岁儿童。使用2010年至2019年儿科损伤相关ED的年发病率和月发病率来拟合自回归综合移动平均模型,从中导出95%预测区间的预测估计值,并与相应的观测值进行比较,以获得绝对和相对预测误差的估计值。将2020年和2021年按损伤严重程度划分的损伤分布与2010-2019年参考期进行了比较。2020年和2021年,儿科损伤相关ED的年发病率分别比预测的低7.6%和4.7%,相当于两年期间估计总共减少1683例儿科损伤相关的ED。在主要社会限制期间(即2020年3月至5月和2021年7月至10月),观察到儿科损伤相关ED的月发病率下降幅度最大。仅在轻伤中观察到损伤相关ED表现的月发生率显著降低,在中度和重度损伤中没有明显降低。这些发现强调了新冠肺炎大流行对儿科损伤相关ED表现的影响,以及未来流行病学研究的必要性,研究儿科创伤量的长期趋势,以解释新冠肺炎大流行的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Changes in Paediatric Injury-Related Emergency Department Presentations during the COVID-19 Pandemic
This study aimed to quantify changes in paediatric injury-related Emergency Department (ED) presentations at a large metropolitan paediatric hospital during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., 2020 and 2021). This retrospective cohort study included children aged ≤15 years who presented to the ED at the Children’s Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, with a principal diagnosis of injury during 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2021. Annual and monthly incidence of paediatric injury-related ED presentations from 2010 to 2019 were used to fit autoregressive integrated moving average models, from which forecast estimates with 95% prediction intervals were derived and compared against corresponding observed values to obtain estimates of absolute and relative forecast errors. The distributions of injuries by injury severity in 2020 and 2021 were compared against the 2010–2019 reference period. The annual incidence of paediatric injury-related ED presentations was 7.6% and 4.7% lower than forecasted in 2020 and 2021, respectively, equating to an estimated total of 1683 fewer paediatric injury-related ED presentations during the two-year period. The largest reductions in monthly incidence of paediatric injury-related ED presentations were observed during the periods of major societal restrictions (i.e., March–May 2020 and July–October 2021). Significant reductions in monthly incidence of injury-related ED presentations were observed for minor injuries only, with no discernable reductions in moderate and serious injuries. These findings highlight the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on paediatric injury-related ED presentations and the need for future epidemiological studies examining secular trends in paediatric trauma volumes to account for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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