Analysis of the probability of connectivity of a telecommunications network based on the reduction of several non-connectivity events to a union of independent events

Introduction: For large and structurally complex telecommunication networks, calculating the connectivity probability turns out to be a very cumbersome and time-consuming process due to the huge number of elements in the resulting expression. The most expedient way out of this situation is a method based on the representation of a network connectivity event in the form of sums of products of incompatible events. However, this method also requires performing additional operations on sets in some cases. Purpose: To eliminate the main disadvantages of the method using multi-variable inversion. Results: It is shown that the connectivity event of a graph should be interpreted as a union of connectivity events of all its subgraphs, which leads to the validity of the expression for the connectivity event of the network in the form of a union of connectivity events of typical subgraphs (path, backbone, and in general, a multi-pole tree) of the original random graph. An iterative procedure is proposed for bringing a given number of connectivity events to the union of independent events by sequentially adding subgraph disjoint events. The possibility of eliminating repetitive routine procedures inherent in methods using multi-variable inversion is proved by considering not the union of connectivity events (incoherence) degenerating into the sum of incompatible products, but the intersection of opposite events, which also leads to a similar sum. However, to obtain this sum, there is no need to perform a multi-variable inversion for each of the terms over all those previously analyzed. Practical relevance: The obtained analytical relations can be applied in the analysis of reliability, survivability or stability of complex telecommunications networks.