Policy capacity: Explaining the surprising durability of CCTs in Brazil

The central research finding of this article is that the standard policy feedback effects in the literature cannot alone explain the outcomes of the Brazilian Bolsa Familia program/Programa Bolsa Família (PBF). While conditional cash transfers (CCTs) have remained a resilient policy instrument in Brazil – newly elected officials did not dismantle, replace or wholesale transform PBF – our empirical research tells us that this resilience is due not only to policy feedbacks, but also to another mechanism. We suggest that previous explanations have not paid sufficient attention to the concept of policy capacity or to the role of the bureaucracy in defending PBF over time. We analyse the internal dynamics of Brazil’s PBF in changing political and economic environments. Our key explanatory factor is the impact of alternations of power. We suggest that PBF’s resilience to changing political and economic contexts is underpinned by its policy capacity.