Reliability analysis of flap deflection angle based on collaborative intelligent moving Kriging model

To effectively monitor the reliability of civil aircraft flap deflection angle, combined with the quick access recorder(QAR), the collaborative intelligent moving Kriging(CIMK) method is proposed by absorbing the Kriging model, decomposition and co-ordination strategy, equilibrium optimizer(EO), and moving least square(MLS). Among them, the decomposition coordination strategy is used to deal with the relationship between the flaps left and right deflection angles. MLS is employed to select effective modeling samples and solve the undetermined coefficients of Kriging model. EO method is applied to determine optimizing the local compact support region radius of MLS. Firstly, the fault reason for flap left-right asymmetry is analyzed to clarify the main characteristic parameters in QAR data. Secondly, combined with the QAR data of relevant influencing parameters, the civil aircraft flap deflection model(limit state function) is constructed by using CIMK. Then, the reliability and influence of civil aircraft flap deflection angle are analyzed by Monte Carlo(MC) sampling method. The results show that when the flap deflection angle is 3°, the reliability is 0.450 2, and the important factors affecting the flap deflection angle are Mach number, left angle of attack, right angle of attack, etc. Compared with the response surface method(RSM), Kriging, support vector machine(SVM), and back-propagation-artificial neural network(BP-ANN), the average absolute error accuracy of the proposed method is relative improved by 53.02%, 51.43%, 49.03%, and 44.04%, the average relative error accuracy is relative improved by 68.36%, 66.76%, 64.41%, and 62.64%, and the modeling efficiency is relative improved by 50.62%, 26.35%, and 43.01% respectively compared with Kriging, SVM and BP-ANN. When the number of simulations is 103, the analysis accuracy is relative improved by 8.82%, 7.25%, 6.22%, and 3.98% respectively.