Accounting for the effect of forest and fragmentation in probabilistic rockfall hazard

Abstract. The presence of trees along the slope and block fragmentation at impact strongly affect rockfall dynamics and hazard as a consequence. However, these phenomena are rarely simulated explicitly in rockfall studies. We performed rockfall simulations by using the 3D rockfall simulator Hy-Stone, modeling both the presence of trees and fragmentation through specific algorithms implemented in the code. By comparing these simulations with a more classical approach that attempts to account implicitly for such phenomena in the model parameters and by using a new probabilistic rockfall hazard analysis (PRHA) method, we were able to quantify the impact of these phenomena on the design of countermeasures and on hazard. We demonstrated that hazard changes significantly when accounting explicitly for these phenomena and that a classical implicit approach usually overestimates both the hazard level and the 95th percentile of kinetic energy, leading to an oversizing of mitigation measures.