Murray-Darling Basin Plan mark II. What should stakeholders plan for?

ABSTRACT The revised Murray-Darling Basin Plan is scheduled for 2026. Given the Plans complexity, and issues involved in the revision it is worth asking what will be the main drivers of change? What changes can reasonably be anticipated? What preparations should stakeholders make for their engagement in the planning process? As we move towards the next Basin Plan, there are multiple wheels in motion that could shape the future. Several factors we anticipate being important are examined. Our aim is to stimulate stakeholders to think about and prepare for major contingencies that could affect their interests. We focus on those that will likely affect water availability, and changes in policy and water-governance by public agencies. We take the starting point that rivers are complex social-ecological systems, within which structural circumstances and forms of social capital will affect individuals’ and communities’ abilities to maximise what they achieve from their natural assets, and their resilience to unfavourable contingencies. We conclude with some observations about how stakeholders might strengthen their ability to respond to opportunities or threats. While the future is always uncertain and all planning processes are flawed, how stakeholders conceive of and respond to today’s challenges will substantially affect their capacity to be resilient.