{"title":"实体经济中的石油价格","authors":"Haicheng Shu, Peter Spencer","doi":"10.1002/jae.2986","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n <p>This paper presents a macro-finance model of the US economy and the spot and futures markets for oil. The performance of the model is greatly enhanced by using the Kalman filter to model latent variables representing the inflation asymptote, the real price of oil and the slope of the futures curve. We find that these are dominated by innovations in observed futures prices, reflecting the importance of market expectations. Using the Kalman filter to capture inflationary shocks helps solve the notorious price puzzle, the tendency for increases in interest rates to anticipate such developments and apparently cause inflation. Futures prices also depend upon risk premiums, which we find are dominated by the latent variable representing the real oil price rather than macro variables like inflation and interest rates.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Oil prices in the real economy\",\"authors\":\"Haicheng Shu, Peter Spencer\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/jae.2986\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n <p>This paper presents a macro-finance model of the US economy and the spot and futures markets for oil. The performance of the model is greatly enhanced by using the Kalman filter to model latent variables representing the inflation asymptote, the real price of oil and the slope of the futures curve. We find that these are dominated by innovations in observed futures prices, reflecting the importance of market expectations. Using the Kalman filter to capture inflationary shocks helps solve the notorious price puzzle, the tendency for increases in interest rates to anticipate such developments and apparently cause inflation. Futures prices also depend upon risk premiums, which we find are dominated by the latent variable representing the real oil price rather than macro variables like inflation and interest rates.</p>\\n </div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48363,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Applied Econometrics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-05-21\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Applied Econometrics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jae.2986\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jae.2986","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper presents a macro-finance model of the US economy and the spot and futures markets for oil. The performance of the model is greatly enhanced by using the Kalman filter to model latent variables representing the inflation asymptote, the real price of oil and the slope of the futures curve. We find that these are dominated by innovations in observed futures prices, reflecting the importance of market expectations. Using the Kalman filter to capture inflationary shocks helps solve the notorious price puzzle, the tendency for increases in interest rates to anticipate such developments and apparently cause inflation. Futures prices also depend upon risk premiums, which we find are dominated by the latent variable representing the real oil price rather than macro variables like inflation and interest rates.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.
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