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IF 7.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
R. Pande, Nils Enevoldsen
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引用次数: 1

摘要

新古典增长理论认为,能够获得相同技术的国家应该达到共同的收入水平。然而,以Barro和Sala-i-Martin(1992)为例的一篇重要文献,使用1960年至1990年的跨国数据对这一预测进行了测试,并发现了条件收敛性。也就是说,只有在政策、制度和其他特定于国家的因素(如人力资本)的影响下,贫穷国家的增长才会向富裕国家趋同。“收敛到收敛”将基础数据系列扩展到2015年,重新估计跨国增长回归,并记录了一个惊人的变化。自20世纪80年代中期以来,出现了无条件趋同的趋势,自2000年以来达到了绝对趋同(每年约1%)。本文考察了增长相关因素的趋同,发现索洛基本面(s,n,h)增强、短期相关因素(政治和金融机构、财政政策)和文化都表现出b-趋同。作者认为,这一证据支持“制度同质化”有助于绝对趋同:短期增长系数下降是因为“有利于发展”的政策的趋同超过了收入的趋同。重要的是,索洛的基本面并非如此。这篇论文是基于对数据集的令人印象深刻的整理和对条件变量的仔细标准化。使用Barro和Sala-i-Martin(1992)中开发的原始经验规范,它记录了
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Comment
Neoclassical growth theory posits that countries with access to identical technologies should converge to a common income level. However, an important literature, exemplified by Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992), tested this prediction using cross-country data from 1960 to 1990 and instead found conditional convergence. That is, poor countries converged in growth to rich countries only after conditioning on policies, institutions, and other country-specific factors such as human capital. “Converging to Convergence” extends the underlying data series up to 2015, reestimates cross-country growth regressions, and documents a striking change. Since the mid-1980s, there has been a trend toward unconditional convergence culminating in absolute convergence since 2000 (roughly 1% per annum). The paper examines convergence in correlates of growth, andfinds that enhanced Solow fundamentals (s, n, h), short-run correlates (political and financial institutions, fiscal policy), and culture all show b-convergence. This evidence, the authors suggest, is supportive of “institutional homogenization” contributing to absolute convergence: short-run growth coefficients diminished because convergence of “development-favored” policies outpaced that of income. Importantly, the same is not true of Solow fundamentals. The paper is based on an impressive collation of data sets and careful standardization of conditioning variables. Using the original empirical specification developed in Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992), it documents
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
23
期刊介绍: The Nber Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields.
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