Exploring tanking strategies in the NBA: an empirical analysis of resting healthy players

ABSTRACT To date, a number of research studies have examined sport leagues for potential evidence of teams strategically losing games on purpose. Following tournament theory, it is believed sport teams will engage in such practices, often called tanking, in order to gain rewards in the form of better draft picks. Where prior research typically focused on detecting evidence of underperformance by teams, the present research analyzed one possible tanking strategy – the resting of healthy players. Specifically using data from National Basketball Association regular season games from the 2006–07 to 2017–18 seasons, we develop a count model of the number of players who are rested by teams. Furthermore, we utilize a natural experiment to consider whether teams eliminated from playoff contention rest more players. Poisson regression estimates found that eliminated teams will rest more players than others, and that the number of players rested by eliminated teams will increase as the competition for draft picks increases. As such, this study is one of the first to show how teams are able to purposefully lose games, with the strategy being instituted through managerial decisions rather than shirking by workers. HIGHLIGHTS This paper examines whether NBA teams rest healthy players in order to underperform. Poisson regression estimates find that eliminated teams will rest more players. The number of players rested increases when more teams are tied in the standings. Results align with tournament theory in that teams expend losing effort to gain rewards. Findings suggest NBA teams strategical rest players to improve their position in the draft.