巴基斯坦财政主导与通货膨胀动态的实证分析

IF 1.3 Q1 AREA STUDIES
Irem Batool, Khurram Ejaz Chandia, Binesh Sarwar, Muhammad Badar Iqbal
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引用次数: 2

摘要

高通货膨胀加上持续和不断增加的财政赤字是发展中经济体面临的关键问题。财政主导假说认为,当政府当局持续运行巨额预算赤字,并通过创造货币来为赤字融资时,发展中经济体容易出现持续的高通胀。本研究的主要目的是检验1971-2020年期间财政优势状况的存在。目前的研究通过结合货币和财政变量,将通货膨胀建模为财政驱动的货币现象。本研究采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)技术,在统一的框架内分析了长期和短期动态。实证结果表明,预算赤字与货币增长、货币创造与通货膨胀之间存在强有力的、统计上显著的长期关系。该研究在发展中经济体的情况下验证了财政优势假说的存在。结果表明,在支持货币政策的背景下,通过现实和持续的财政调整过程来处理财政优势,对于实现和维持巴基斯坦等发展中国家的价格稳定是必要的。在公共财政方面,广泛和广泛的税收改革(增加税基,设计抗通货膨胀的税收制度,改善税收管理和征收),政府支出合理化和亏损国有企业私有化对于建立值得信赖的财政政策至关重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Fiscal Dominance and the Inflation Dynamics in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis
The presence of high inflation coupled with a persistent and ever-increasing fiscal deficit is the key problem being faced by the developing economies. The fiscal dominance hypothesis suggests that a developing economy is prone to high persistent inflation when government authorities run huge persistent budget deficits and get them financed through money creation. The primary objective of the current study is to test and examine the presence of the fiscal dominance situation over the period 1971–2020. The current study has modelled inflation as a fiscally driven monetary phenomenon by combining monetary and fiscal variables. The study has used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to analyse the long-run and short-run dynamics in a unified framework. The empirical results point to strong and statistically significant long-term relationships between budget deficits and money growth and between money creation and inflation. The study validates the presence of the fiscal dominance hypothesis in the case of a developing economy. The results imply that fiscal dominance handling through a realistic and continuous process of fiscal adjustments on the back of supported monetary policy is necessary for attaining and sustaining price stability in developing countries like Pakistan. In the context of public finance, a broad and wide-ranging tax reforms (increasing the tax base, designing an inflation-proof tax system, and improving tax administration and collection), rationalized government expenditures and privatization of loss-making state enterprises are crucial in establishing the trustworthy fiscal policy.
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来源期刊
Millennial Asia
Millennial Asia AREA STUDIES-
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
12.50%
发文量
33
期刊介绍: Millennial Asia: An International Journal of Asian Studies is a multidisciplinary, refereed biannual journal of the Association of Asia Scholars (AAS)–an association of the alumni of the Asian Scholarship Foundation (ASF). It aims to encourage multifaceted, multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research on Asia, in order to understand its fast changing context as a growth pole of global economy. By providing a forum for Asian scholars situated globally, it promotes dialogue between the global academic community, civil society and policy makers on Asian issues. The journal examines Asia on a regional and comparative basis, emphasizing patterns and tendencies that go beyond national borders and are globally relevant. Modern and contemporary Asia has witnessed dynamic transformations in cultures, societies, economies and political institutions, among others. It confronts issues of collective identity formation, ecological crisis, rapid economic change and resurgence of religion and communal identifies while embracing globalization. An analysis of past experiences can help produce a deeper understanding of contemporary change. In particular, the journal is interested in locating contemporary changes within a historical perspective, through the use of interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary approaches. This way, it hopes to promote comparative studies involving Asia’s various regions. The journal brings out both thematic and general issues and the thrust areas are: Asian integration, Asian economies, sociology, culture, politics, governance, security, development issues, arts and literature and any other such issue as the editorial board may deem fit. The core fields include development encompassing agriculture, industry, regional trade, social sectors like health and education and development policy across the region and in specific countries in a comparative perspective.
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