Rare and rare-earth metals industry development in Russia and its influence on fourth world energy transition

The Energy Transition currently determines the most accurate state of developed and developing economies, reflecting major energy policies and technologies transformations [1–3]. One of this paper’s purposes is to analyze the correlations of energy transition with metals belonging to the group of rare and rare earths — as a resource necessary for this process. Based on IEA experts [4], the growth of demand for REM will face the following difficulties [5] that increase risks for the global economy: – the dominance of individual countries in value chains along their entire length from the extraction and processing of rare earth metals to the production of components (in China and the USA an internal technological chain has been established from mining to the production of final products; some countries are focused on the raw materials sector: Australia — on mining of rare earth metals, lithium, zirconium, Brazil and Canada — on mining of niobium, Chile — on mining of lithium) [6]; – negative environmental impacts from the use of certain production and technological operations; – discrepancies in forecasts regarding the demand for individual REM, which can provoke abrupt price fluctuations for both the most (neodymium) and least (cerium) in-demand REM. The indicator of world production of rare and rare earth metals for 2020 reached 815,000 tons [7]. At the same time, the world production of rare earth metals significantly lags behind the available reserves of raw materials (India, Russia, Brazil, and Vietnam). According to the Rare and Rare Earth Metals Producers and Consumers Association Non-Profit Organization (NPO), the calculated volume of mining and production of rare metals in Russia in the perspective of 2030 is projected to be 43.000 tons per year, and the same indicator for rare earth metals is at least 30.000 tons per year [8] (Fig. 1). It is expected, however, that the consumption of rare and rare earth metals will decline relative to the production levels of the same year, when the supply of metals for lithium-ion and other modern batteries increased by 16.000 and 26.500 tons, respectively (Fig. 2). As priority technologies of the Energy transition, where RM/REM can play a significant role, the follo wing can be singled out: – Solar photovoltaic technology; – Offshore and onshore wind power technologies; – Technologies for the production of hydrogen by electrolysis; Rare and rare-earth metals industry development in Russia and its influence on fourth world energy transition