{"title":"洪水保险需求与概率加权:后悔、担忧、控制点和关注阈值的影响","authors":"Peter John Robinson , W.J.Wouter Botzen","doi":"10.1016/j.wre.2019.100144","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Low-lying densely populated areas can be susceptible to flooding<span> due to extreme river discharges. Insurance may be used to spread flood risk and reduce potential material damages. However, homeowners often purchase insufficient amounts of insurance against natural hazard risks like flooding, which may be due to the way they process probabilities. A common finding from (Cumulative) Prospect Theory is that individuals over-weight low probabilities and under-weight moderate to high probabilities in making decisions under risk. However, very low probabilities typical of flood risks are either significantly over-weighted or neglected altogether. This study aims to examine factors related to </span></span>flood insurance demand regarding emotions specific to risk, like immediate and anticipated emotions, the threshold level of concern as well as personality traits, like locus of control. In addition, we compare results under real experiment incentives to hypothetical ones with high loss outcomes. Based on data collected from 1041 homeowners in the Netherlands, we find that: an internal locus of control and anticipated regret about potentially uninsured flood losses is related to higher flood insurance demand. The use of the threshold of concern model is related to more probability under-weighting/less probability over-weighting when probabilities of flooding are low. Several policies are suggested to overcome psychological factors related to low demand for flood insurance to improve future flood preparations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48644,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.wre.2019.100144","citationCount":"17","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Flood insurance demand and probability weighting: The influences of regret, worry, locus of control and the threshold of concern heuristic\",\"authors\":\"Peter John Robinson , W.J.Wouter Botzen\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.wre.2019.100144\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p><span>Low-lying densely populated areas can be susceptible to flooding<span> due to extreme river discharges. Insurance may be used to spread flood risk and reduce potential material damages. However, homeowners often purchase insufficient amounts of insurance against natural hazard risks like flooding, which may be due to the way they process probabilities. A common finding from (Cumulative) Prospect Theory is that individuals over-weight low probabilities and under-weight moderate to high probabilities in making decisions under risk. However, very low probabilities typical of flood risks are either significantly over-weighted or neglected altogether. This study aims to examine factors related to </span></span>flood insurance demand regarding emotions specific to risk, like immediate and anticipated emotions, the threshold level of concern as well as personality traits, like locus of control. In addition, we compare results under real experiment incentives to hypothetical ones with high loss outcomes. Based on data collected from 1041 homeowners in the Netherlands, we find that: an internal locus of control and anticipated regret about potentially uninsured flood losses is related to higher flood insurance demand. The use of the threshold of concern model is related to more probability under-weighting/less probability over-weighting when probabilities of flooding are low. Several policies are suggested to overcome psychological factors related to low demand for flood insurance to improve future flood preparations.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48644,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Water Resources and Economics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-04-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.wre.2019.100144\",\"citationCount\":\"17\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Water Resources and Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212428418301166\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Water Resources and Economics","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212428418301166","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Flood insurance demand and probability weighting: The influences of regret, worry, locus of control and the threshold of concern heuristic
Low-lying densely populated areas can be susceptible to flooding due to extreme river discharges. Insurance may be used to spread flood risk and reduce potential material damages. However, homeowners often purchase insufficient amounts of insurance against natural hazard risks like flooding, which may be due to the way they process probabilities. A common finding from (Cumulative) Prospect Theory is that individuals over-weight low probabilities and under-weight moderate to high probabilities in making decisions under risk. However, very low probabilities typical of flood risks are either significantly over-weighted or neglected altogether. This study aims to examine factors related to flood insurance demand regarding emotions specific to risk, like immediate and anticipated emotions, the threshold level of concern as well as personality traits, like locus of control. In addition, we compare results under real experiment incentives to hypothetical ones with high loss outcomes. Based on data collected from 1041 homeowners in the Netherlands, we find that: an internal locus of control and anticipated regret about potentially uninsured flood losses is related to higher flood insurance demand. The use of the threshold of concern model is related to more probability under-weighting/less probability over-weighting when probabilities of flooding are low. Several policies are suggested to overcome psychological factors related to low demand for flood insurance to improve future flood preparations.
期刊介绍:
Water Resources and Economics is one of a series of specialist titles launched by the highly-regarded Water Research. For the purpose of sustainable water resources management, understanding the multiple connections and feedback mechanisms between water resources and the economy is crucial. Water Resources and Economics addresses the financial and economic dimensions associated with water resources use and governance, across different economic sectors like agriculture, energy, industry, shipping, recreation and urban and rural water supply, at local, regional and transboundary scale.
Topics of interest include (but are not restricted to) the economics of:
Aquatic ecosystem services-
Blue economy-
Climate change and flood risk management-
Climate smart agriculture-
Coastal management-
Droughts and water scarcity-
Environmental flows-
Eutrophication-
Food, water, energy nexus-
Groundwater management-
Hydropower generation-
Hydrological risks and uncertainties-
Marine resources-
Nature-based solutions-
Resource recovery-
River restoration-
Storm water harvesting-
Transboundary water allocation-
Urban water management-
Wastewater treatment-
Watershed management-
Water health risks-
Water pollution-
Water quality management-
Water security-
Water stress-
Water technology innovation.