The role of transportation development and internal migration controls in producing spatial inequality

ABSTRACT Does investing in the development of rural communities exacerbate or ameliorate spatial inequalities between urban and rural areas? developments, such as expansion of national transportation networks, could have two plausible effects with respect to inequality: integration with urban areas could prompt outmigration and brain drain, or it could attract additional investment to towns and villages. Drawing on data from three waves of the China Family Panel Studies, this paper explores how the expansion of long-distance bus stations contributed to the development trajectories of rural China. By leveraging an inductive approach using mixture models, I find that expansion of transportation networks result in two contradictory processes: in some villages, expanded long distance bus travel prompts migrants who would otherwise have stayed in their villages to migrate, while in others would-be migrants stay home. Analysis finds that the outward ‘brain drain’ effect is strongest in relatively poor and remote villages. Taken together, these findings suggest that local development differentially impacts rural regions, favoring those who were already ahead and accelerating the decline of villages that had already been struggling. These findings point to the importance of understanding heterogeneity within spatial processes.