Social-Ecological Risk and Vulnerability to Flooding and Erosion along the Ohio Lake Erie Shoreline

Abstract The Laurentian Great Lakes system holds approximately 20% of the world’s available surface freshwater and represents an immense economic engine for the region. Lake Erie, one of the five North American Great Lakes is classified as highly stressed and deteriorating with significant flooding and erosion issues stemming from record-high water levels. This study adapts a well-established oceanic coastal vulnerability index to estimate impacts and risks of lake-level rise on the Ohio portion of Lake Erie coastal social-ecological system. The authors worked closely with coastal engineers, planners, and other practitioners associated with the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) and the Office of Coastal Management (OCM) to help adapt a scientifically-grounded framework for natural resource and policy decision making. Overall, place-based risk and vulnerability to flooding and erosion necessitates an integrated approach that combines socio-economic, built-environment, political boundaries, and bio-physical characteristics. While most of the integrated methodologies are focused on the oceanic coasts at the county scale, this research presents a model for Lake Erie-relevant variables at the higher-resolution census-tract unit of analysis and a coastal vulnerability index at 100-foot intervals along the coastline for four decades and each season. The result is both a foundation for Ohio’s Department of Natural Resources, Office of Coastal Management to identify scientifically-informed, place-based priority management areas for flooding and erosion, as well as a methodological roadmap to adapt the Coastal and Place Vulnerability Indices to the other Great Lakes’ states and provincial shorelines.