迈向2030年欧洲直播

IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Stephan Bojinski, Dick Blaauboer, Xavier Calbet, Estelle de Coning, Frans Debie, Thibaut Montmerle, Vesa Nietosvaara, Katie Norman, Luis Bañón Peregrín, Franziska Schmid, Nataša Strelec Mahović, Kathrin Wapler
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引用次数: 0

摘要

欧洲恶劣天气对人们生活和对天气敏感的经济的影响越来越大,可以通过准确的0-6小时预报(临近预报)来减轻,为民事保护和许多其他应用提供重要的“最后一道防线”。认识到在一些复杂情况下(通常是对流和局部亚公里尺度以及与罕见事件相关的情况)缺乏技能,我们提出了七项建议,旨在到2030年改善欧洲国家气象和水文部门(nmhs)的临近预报。这些建议是基于对用户需求、观测系统状况、基于观测和高分辨率数值天气模式的技术,以及支持欧洲临近预报社区的工具、数据和基础设施的审查。更密集和更精确的观测是必要的,特别是在边界层中,以便更好地表征强风暴的成分。改进的一个关键驱动因素是下一代欧洲卫星数据将于2023年可用。无缝集成预测方法,以产生0-24小时提前期的增强天气预报和概率产品,需要进一步发展。这些产品需要由熟练的预测人员在不断发展的预测环境中进行理解和解释。我们认为,在临近预报相关数据和信息的提供者和用户之间加强共同开发和协作是取得进展的关键因素。我们建议建立泛欧临近预报联盟,更好地交换数据,共同的开发平台和共同的验证方法,作为未来十年欧洲临近预报发展的关键要素。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Towards nowcasting in Europe in 2030

Towards nowcasting in Europe in 2030

The increasing impact of severe weather over Europe on lives and weather-sensitive economies can be mitigated by accurate 0–6 h forecasts (nowcasts), supporting a vital ‘last line of defence’ for civil protection and many other applications. Recognizing lack of skill in some complex situations, often at convective and local sub-kilometre scales and associated with rare events, we identify seven recommendations with the aim to improve nowcasting in Europe by the national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) by 2030. These recommendations are based on a review of user needs, the state of the observing system, techniques based on observations and high-resolution numerical weather models, as well as tools, data and infrastructure supporting the nowcasting community in Europe. Denser and more accurate observations are necessary particularly in the boundary layer to better characterize the ingredients of severe storms. A key driver for improvement is next-generation European satellite data becoming available as of 2023. Seamless ensemble prediction methods to produce enhanced weather forecasts with 0–24 h lead times and probabilistic products require further development. Such products need to be understood and interpreted by skilled forecasters operating in an evolving forecasting context. We argue that stronger co-development and collaboration between providers and users of nowcasting-relevant data and information are key ingredients for progress. We recommend establishing pan-European nowcasting consortia, better exchange of data, common development platforms and common verification approaches as key elements for progressing nowcasting in Europe in this decade.

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来源期刊
Meteorological Applications
Meteorological Applications 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
3.70%
发文量
62
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The aim of Meteorological Applications is to serve the needs of applied meteorologists, forecasters and users of meteorological services by publishing papers on all aspects of meteorological science, including: applications of meteorological, climatological, analytical and forecasting data, and their socio-economic benefits; forecasting, warning and service delivery techniques and methods; weather hazards, their analysis and prediction; performance, verification and value of numerical models and forecasting services; practical applications of ocean and climate models; education and training.
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