Stephan Bojinski, Dick Blaauboer, Xavier Calbet, Estelle de Coning, Frans Debie, Thibaut Montmerle, Vesa Nietosvaara, Katie Norman, Luis Bañón Peregrín, Franziska Schmid, Nataša Strelec Mahović, Kathrin Wapler
{"title":"迈向2030年欧洲直播","authors":"Stephan Bojinski, Dick Blaauboer, Xavier Calbet, Estelle de Coning, Frans Debie, Thibaut Montmerle, Vesa Nietosvaara, Katie Norman, Luis Bañón Peregrín, Franziska Schmid, Nataša Strelec Mahović, Kathrin Wapler","doi":"10.1002/met.2124","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The increasing impact of severe weather over Europe on lives and weather-sensitive economies can be mitigated by accurate 0–6 h forecasts (nowcasts), supporting a vital ‘last line of defence’ for civil protection and many other applications. Recognizing lack of skill in some complex situations, often at convective and local sub-kilometre scales and associated with rare events, we identify seven recommendations with the aim to improve nowcasting in Europe by the national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) by 2030. These recommendations are based on a review of user needs, the state of the observing system, techniques based on observations and high-resolution numerical weather models, as well as tools, data and infrastructure supporting the nowcasting community in Europe. Denser and more accurate observations are necessary particularly in the boundary layer to better characterize the ingredients of severe storms. A key driver for improvement is next-generation European satellite data becoming available as of 2023. Seamless ensemble prediction methods to produce enhanced weather forecasts with 0–24 h lead times and probabilistic products require further development. Such products need to be understood and interpreted by skilled forecasters operating in an evolving forecasting context. We argue that stronger co-development and collaboration between providers and users of nowcasting-relevant data and information are key ingredients for progress. We recommend establishing pan-European nowcasting consortia, better exchange of data, common development platforms and common verification approaches as key elements for progressing nowcasting in Europe in this decade.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2124","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Towards nowcasting in Europe in 2030\",\"authors\":\"Stephan Bojinski, Dick Blaauboer, Xavier Calbet, Estelle de Coning, Frans Debie, Thibaut Montmerle, Vesa Nietosvaara, Katie Norman, Luis Bañón Peregrín, Franziska Schmid, Nataša Strelec Mahović, Kathrin Wapler\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/met.2124\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The increasing impact of severe weather over Europe on lives and weather-sensitive economies can be mitigated by accurate 0–6 h forecasts (nowcasts), supporting a vital ‘last line of defence’ for civil protection and many other applications. Recognizing lack of skill in some complex situations, often at convective and local sub-kilometre scales and associated with rare events, we identify seven recommendations with the aim to improve nowcasting in Europe by the national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) by 2030. These recommendations are based on a review of user needs, the state of the observing system, techniques based on observations and high-resolution numerical weather models, as well as tools, data and infrastructure supporting the nowcasting community in Europe. Denser and more accurate observations are necessary particularly in the boundary layer to better characterize the ingredients of severe storms. A key driver for improvement is next-generation European satellite data becoming available as of 2023. Seamless ensemble prediction methods to produce enhanced weather forecasts with 0–24 h lead times and probabilistic products require further development. Such products need to be understood and interpreted by skilled forecasters operating in an evolving forecasting context. We argue that stronger co-development and collaboration between providers and users of nowcasting-relevant data and information are key ingredients for progress. We recommend establishing pan-European nowcasting consortia, better exchange of data, common development platforms and common verification approaches as key elements for progressing nowcasting in Europe in this decade.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49825,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Meteorological Applications\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-07-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2124\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Meteorological Applications\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.2124\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Meteorological Applications","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.2124","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
The increasing impact of severe weather over Europe on lives and weather-sensitive economies can be mitigated by accurate 0–6 h forecasts (nowcasts), supporting a vital ‘last line of defence’ for civil protection and many other applications. Recognizing lack of skill in some complex situations, often at convective and local sub-kilometre scales and associated with rare events, we identify seven recommendations with the aim to improve nowcasting in Europe by the national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) by 2030. These recommendations are based on a review of user needs, the state of the observing system, techniques based on observations and high-resolution numerical weather models, as well as tools, data and infrastructure supporting the nowcasting community in Europe. Denser and more accurate observations are necessary particularly in the boundary layer to better characterize the ingredients of severe storms. A key driver for improvement is next-generation European satellite data becoming available as of 2023. Seamless ensemble prediction methods to produce enhanced weather forecasts with 0–24 h lead times and probabilistic products require further development. Such products need to be understood and interpreted by skilled forecasters operating in an evolving forecasting context. We argue that stronger co-development and collaboration between providers and users of nowcasting-relevant data and information are key ingredients for progress. We recommend establishing pan-European nowcasting consortia, better exchange of data, common development platforms and common verification approaches as key elements for progressing nowcasting in Europe in this decade.
期刊介绍:
The aim of Meteorological Applications is to serve the needs of applied meteorologists, forecasters and users of meteorological services by publishing papers on all aspects of meteorological science, including:
applications of meteorological, climatological, analytical and forecasting data, and their socio-economic benefits;
forecasting, warning and service delivery techniques and methods;
weather hazards, their analysis and prediction;
performance, verification and value of numerical models and forecasting services;
practical applications of ocean and climate models;
education and training.