极化、价态与政策竞争

IF 8.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Review-Insights Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI:10.1257/aeri.20210169

Peter Buisseret, Richard Van Weelden

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引用次数: 4

摘要

我们研究了两个寻求职位的候选人之间的选举，当一个候选人具有效价优势时，他们在党派问题维度上两极分化。候选人通过在选民的偏好不确定的第二个问题维度上选择政策来竞争。现有的研究预测，低价候选人通过采取非中间派政策来“赌复活”，以区别于更强大的对手。我们的研究表明，在高度两极分化的环境中，这种预测是相反的:强势候选人选择的政策与选民的立场不太一致，但仍然有更高的概率赢得选举。(凝胶11，凝胶72)

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Polarization, Valence, and Policy Competition

We study an election between two office-seeking candidates who are polarized along a partisan issue dimension when one candidate has a valence advantage. The candidates compete by choosing policy on a second issue dimension about which voters’ preferences are uncertain. Existing work predicts that the low-valence candidate “gambles for resurrection” by adopting non-centrist policies in order to differentiate from a stronger opponent. We show that this prediction is reversed in a highly polarized environment: the strong candidate chooses policies less aligned with the electorate but nonetheless wins the election with higher probability. (JEL D11, D72)

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来源期刊

American Economic Review-Insights ECONOMICS-

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发文量

期刊介绍： The journal American Economic Review: Insights (AER: Insights) is a publication that caters to a wide audience interested in economics. It shares the same standards of quality and significance as the American Economic Review (AER) but focuses specifically on papers that offer important insights communicated concisely. AER: Insights releases four issues annually, covering a diverse range of topics in economics.