Overcoming the “Trump Trap”: How Thucydides Can Be Better Applied to US Policy on China

Analogies to the Peloponnesian War have been misapplied in studies of US–China relations, especially regarding the so-called “Thucydides trap” of inevitable conflict between an established power and a rising power. This article addresses methodological problems with deriving policy lessons from political theory and ancient history. It then argues that Thucydides is more applicable to overcoming a pattern of leadership mistakes reminiscent of Athens’ populist politics, erosion of international agreements and mismanagement of alliances. To meet the China challenge, the United States must renew its national strength with good governance, productive interdependence, and sustained investment in human capital.