印度通货膨胀动态与货币政策:新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线视角

IF 0.3 Q4 ECONOMICS

South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance Pub Date : 2019-08-28 DOI:10.1177/2277978719861186

Bhavesh Salunkhe, Anuradha Patnaik

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引用次数: 8

摘要

本研究分别使用消费者价格指数(CPI)和批发价格指数(WPI)通胀估算了1996年第二季度至2017年第二季度印度新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线(NKPC)模型的各种规格。实证结果表明，该数据支持基于CPI和WPI通胀的菲利普斯曲线模型的所有规范。然而，回溯模型和混合模型为这两个通胀指数提供了稳健的结果。前瞻性行为主导着CPI通胀轨迹，而向后看行为极大地影响着WPI通胀轨迹。此外，在CPI和WPI通胀中，明显存在小到中等程度的持续性。主要代表需求侧压力的产出缺口是决定CPI和WPI通胀的主要力量。除产出缺口外，实际有效汇率(reer)、国际原油价格通胀、全球非燃料大宗商品价格通胀和降雨对CPI和WPI通胀的影响较小。JEL分类:E12、E52、C36、C14

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Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective

The present study estimates various specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) models for India over 1996Q2 to 2017Q2 using Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation, separately. The empirical results suggest that the data support all the specifications of the Phillips curve models based on both the CPI and WPI inflations. However, the backward looking and hybrid models provide robust results for both the inflation indices. While the forward-looking behaviour dominates the CPI inflation trajectory, the backward-looking behaviour greatly influences the trajectory of WPI inflation. Also, a small-to-moderate degree of persistence is evident in both the CPI and WPI inflation. The output gap, which mainly represents the demand side pressures, turns up the major force determining both the CPI and WPI inflations. Besides the output gap, real effective exchange rate (reer), international crude oil price inflation, global non-fuel commodity price inflation and rainfall have a modest impact on the CPI and WPI inflations. JEL Classification: E12, E52, C36, C14

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来源期刊

South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

11.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The purpose of the Journal is to publish (in English language) peer-reviewed articles, reviews and scholarly comments on issues relating to contemporary global macroeconomics and public finance by which is understood: The Journal is for all professionals concerned with contemporary Macroeconomics and Public Finance and is a forum for all views on related subjects. The Editorial Board welcomes articles of current interest on research and application on the areas mentioned above. The Journal will be international in the sense that it seeks research papers from authors with an international reputation and articles that are of interest to an international audience. In pursuit of the above, the journal shall: a. draw on and include high quality work from the international community of scholars including those in the major countries of Asia, Europe, Asia Pacific, the United States, other parts of the Americas and elsewhere with due representation for considerations of the readership. The Journal shall include work representing the major areas of interest in contemporary research on Macroeconomics and Public Finance and on a wide range of issues covering macro- economics, tax and fiscal issues, banking and finance, international trade, labour economics, computational and mathematical methods, etc. The Journal would particularly engage papers on pure and applied economic theory and econometric methods. b. avoid bias in favour of the interests of particular schools or directions of research or particular political or narrow disciplinary objectives to the exclusion of others. c. ensure that articles are written in a terminology and style which makes them intelligible, not merely within the context of a particular discipline or abstract mode, but across the domain of relevant disciplines.