{"title":"(g) 开门见山:水风险和不确定性问题","authors":"Adam Loch, David Adamson, Christopher Auricht","doi":"10.1016/j.wre.2019.100154","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Where we may be aware that a problem exists, but have only an incomplete description of the drivers and/or possible management solutions, we will be unaware/uncertain about future returns from, and risks to, private and public investments in capital (i.e. social, natural, economic, cultural and political). This paper explores the unawareness/uncertainty problem by coupling Arrow's states of nature approach for dealing with uncertainty with Rothschild and Stiglitz's exploration of inputs and increasing risk. This results in a modified Just-Pope production function equation isolating inputs to i) protect base capital (natural, social or private) and/or ii) generate an output. By exploring water input supply unawareness via alternative states of nature we may identify tipping points where current technology fails, resulting in irreversible losses of private and public capital tied to water inputs. We conclude by discussing the value of quantifying minimum-input requirements and identifying critical tipping-point outcomes in water systems, increased benefits/risks from transformed landscapes chasing higher economic returns, and the need for adaptive public arrangements in response. These insights may help us to understand future risk to natural capital from rising incentives to steal increasingly constrained resources that may trigger revised risk-sharing arrangements, and some limits to analyses relying on perfect foresight requirements by decision-makers.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48644,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources and Economics","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 100154"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.wre.2019.100154","citationCount":"16","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"(g)etting to the point: The problem with water risk and uncertainty\",\"authors\":\"Adam Loch, David Adamson, Christopher Auricht\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.wre.2019.100154\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Where we may be aware that a problem exists, but have only an incomplete description of the drivers and/or possible management solutions, we will be unaware/uncertain about future returns from, and risks to, private and public investments in capital (i.e. social, natural, economic, cultural and political). This paper explores the unawareness/uncertainty problem by coupling Arrow's states of nature approach for dealing with uncertainty with Rothschild and Stiglitz's exploration of inputs and increasing risk. This results in a modified Just-Pope production function equation isolating inputs to i) protect base capital (natural, social or private) and/or ii) generate an output. By exploring water input supply unawareness via alternative states of nature we may identify tipping points where current technology fails, resulting in irreversible losses of private and public capital tied to water inputs. We conclude by discussing the value of quantifying minimum-input requirements and identifying critical tipping-point outcomes in water systems, increased benefits/risks from transformed landscapes chasing higher economic returns, and the need for adaptive public arrangements in response. These insights may help us to understand future risk to natural capital from rising incentives to steal increasingly constrained resources that may trigger revised risk-sharing arrangements, and some limits to analyses relying on perfect foresight requirements by decision-makers.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48644,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Water Resources and Economics\",\"volume\":\"32 \",\"pages\":\"Article 100154\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.wre.2019.100154\",\"citationCount\":\"16\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Water Resources and Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212428419300350\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Water Resources and Economics","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212428419300350","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
(g)etting to the point: The problem with water risk and uncertainty
Where we may be aware that a problem exists, but have only an incomplete description of the drivers and/or possible management solutions, we will be unaware/uncertain about future returns from, and risks to, private and public investments in capital (i.e. social, natural, economic, cultural and political). This paper explores the unawareness/uncertainty problem by coupling Arrow's states of nature approach for dealing with uncertainty with Rothschild and Stiglitz's exploration of inputs and increasing risk. This results in a modified Just-Pope production function equation isolating inputs to i) protect base capital (natural, social or private) and/or ii) generate an output. By exploring water input supply unawareness via alternative states of nature we may identify tipping points where current technology fails, resulting in irreversible losses of private and public capital tied to water inputs. We conclude by discussing the value of quantifying minimum-input requirements and identifying critical tipping-point outcomes in water systems, increased benefits/risks from transformed landscapes chasing higher economic returns, and the need for adaptive public arrangements in response. These insights may help us to understand future risk to natural capital from rising incentives to steal increasingly constrained resources that may trigger revised risk-sharing arrangements, and some limits to analyses relying on perfect foresight requirements by decision-makers.
期刊介绍:
Water Resources and Economics is one of a series of specialist titles launched by the highly-regarded Water Research. For the purpose of sustainable water resources management, understanding the multiple connections and feedback mechanisms between water resources and the economy is crucial. Water Resources and Economics addresses the financial and economic dimensions associated with water resources use and governance, across different economic sectors like agriculture, energy, industry, shipping, recreation and urban and rural water supply, at local, regional and transboundary scale.
Topics of interest include (but are not restricted to) the economics of:
Aquatic ecosystem services-
Blue economy-
Climate change and flood risk management-
Climate smart agriculture-
Coastal management-
Droughts and water scarcity-
Environmental flows-
Eutrophication-
Food, water, energy nexus-
Groundwater management-
Hydropower generation-
Hydrological risks and uncertainties-
Marine resources-
Nature-based solutions-
Resource recovery-
River restoration-
Storm water harvesting-
Transboundary water allocation-
Urban water management-
Wastewater treatment-
Watershed management-
Water health risks-
Water pollution-
Water quality management-
Water security-
Water stress-
Water technology innovation.