西北航道多年海冰状况:1968-2020

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
S. Howell, D. Babb, J. Landy, M. Brady
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引用次数: 1

摘要

西北航道通常被称为船舶航行的“圣杯”,因为与北海航线、巴拿马运河、苏伊士运河相比,它提供了一条连接大西洋和太平洋的更短的航线,并绕过合恩角。在这里,我们总结了从1968年到2020年在西北航道加拿大西部北极地区观测到的52年多年冰(MYI)条件,更新了之前考虑1968年至2006年的研究。结果表明,与1991-2020年气候学相比,1968 - 2006年航季MYI面积距平平均值为+28%,2007 - 2020年为- 33%。从2007年到2020年,MYI面积出现负异常的频率是52年来前所未有的。过去14年中,波弗特海、富兰克林和北极西部航道有13年为负;在过去14年中,西帕里海峡和伊丽莎白女王群岛有10年为负值;在过去14年里,克林托克海峡有9年为负。尽管2007 - 2020年频繁出现强烈的负MYI异常,但第一年冰老化的MYI恢复和MYI动态进口仍在继续,但与1968-2006年相比分别下降了47%和22%。我们证明,从2007年到2020年(i) MYI动态恢复减少,因为北冰洋MYI主要通过伊丽莎白女王群岛的较小孔径流入加拿大北极,而不是通过M 'Clure海峡从波弗特海流入;(ii)仅供参考,老化减少,因为最近热力学强迫的变化促成了更多的融化。总的来说,我们的研究结果再次证实,随着北极持续变暖,西北航道的轻MYI年可能会更频繁地发生,但在可预见的未来,MYI的恢复将继续对航行构成重大威胁。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Multi-Year Sea Ice Conditions in the Northwest Passage: 1968–2020
ABSTRACT The Northwest Passage is often referred to as the “Holy Grail” of ship navigation as it provides a shorter route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans compared to the Northern Sea Route, Panama Canal, Suez Canal, and transiting around Cape Horn. Here, we summarize 52 years of observed multi-year ice (MYI) conditions from 1968 to 2020 in the western Canadian Arctic regions of the Northwest Passage updating a previous study that considered 1968–2006. Results indicate that on average, MYI area anomalies during the shipping season were +28% from 1968 to 2006 but −33% from 2007 to 2020 relative to the 1991–2020 climatology. The frequency of negative MYI area anomalies from 2007 to 2020 was unprecedented over the 52-year record. 13 of the past 14 years were negative in the Beaufort Sea, Franklin, and the Western Arctic Waterway; 10 of the past 14 years were negative in Western Parry Channel and Queen Elizabeth Islands; and 9 of the past 14 years were negative in the M’Clintock Channel. Despite strong and frequent negative MYI anomalies from 2007 to 2020, MYI recovery from first-year ice (FYI) aging and MYI dynamic import continued, but was reduced by 47% and 22%, respectively compared to 1968–2006. We demonstrate that from 2007 to 2020 (i) MYI dynamic recovery decreased because Arctic Ocean MYI has been primarily flowing into the Canadian Arctic via the smaller apertures in the Queen Elizabeth Islands and not from the Beaufort Sea via the M’Clure Strait and (ii) FYI aging decreased because recent changes in thermodynamic forcing have contributed to more melt. Overall, our results re-affirm that light MYI years in the Northwest Passage may occur more frequently as the Arctic continues to warm, but MYI recovery will continue to present a significant hazard to navigation for the foreseeable future.
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来源期刊
Atmosphere-Ocean
Atmosphere-Ocean 地学-海洋学
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
16.70%
发文量
33
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Atmosphere-Ocean is the principal scientific journal of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS). It contains results of original research, survey articles, notes and comments on published papers in all fields of the atmospheric, oceanographic and hydrological sciences. Arctic, coastal and mid- to high-latitude regions are areas of particular interest. Applied or fundamental research contributions in English or French on the following topics are welcomed: climate and climatology; observation technology, remote sensing; forecasting, modelling, numerical methods; physics, dynamics, chemistry, biogeochemistry; boundary layers, pollution, aerosols; circulation, cloud physics, hydrology, air-sea interactions; waves, ice, energy exchange and related environmental topics.
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