Probability of a Central American locust Schistocerca piceifrons piceifrons upsurge in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

From ancient times to the present, infestations of the Central American locust (CAL) [Schistocerca piceifrons piceifrons (Walker, 1870)] have occurred periodically and with varying intensities in the Yucatan Peninsula (YP), Mexico. Despite efforts to survey the recession zone, an upsurge is still difficult to predict and prevent, and high economic costs are incurred in controlling this pest. For this study, two models were developed to determine the probability of an upsurge in the YP. The first was the Markov chain (MC) with transition probability matrix, which estimates probability by determining the proportion of times that the system moved from one state to another (n2) over 71, 33, and 24 years in Yucatan, Campeche, and the Quintana Roo States, respectively, divided into different periods; a correlation of the matrix and probability (n2) of the next period was performed to evaluate the accuracy of the estimation. The other method is the classic probabilistic (CP) model, which uses the number of times the upsurge could happen and the number of possible events. In the MC model, great variation was found in CAL upsurge probabilities between periods, with a similar number of upsurges from the past to the present but with varying intensity. In recent years, the treated area with insecticides has been less than that of the past. The CP model revealed that the locust population reached its maximum peak every four years, with the migration of swarms to neighboring states at the end/start of the year. Validation of the MC and CP models was performed considering information on areas treated in 2019 and 2020, and good accuracy was obtained. Both models provide information on the probability of an upsurge in the YP. This information can be incorporated into economic models to improve management decisions, such as when to announce early warnings, and to implement preventive control strategies.