喀麦隆封闭的俾格米人种群参数估计

Y. T. Kouakep
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引用次数: 0

摘要

受(kouakep,arxiv.org/abs/1505.064312016)手稿的启发,我们在本注释中考虑了一个具有不同易感性和传染性的适定模型,该模型为喀麦隆东部(非洲)的“巴卡”侏儒群体的ODE模型添加了连续的年龄结构。假设与急性感染相比,携带者对感染的贡献非常低,我们估计了概率p(a)(在a岁时出现症状性乙型肝炎状态)和急性携带者的传播率。根据喀麦隆东部的数据估计的基本繁殖数的值R0=2:67>1证实了HBV在巴卡俾格米族中是地方病。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimation of parameters in a closed pygmy population in Cameroon
Inspired by a manuscript of (kouakep, arxiv.org/abs/1505.06431, 2016), we considered in this note a wellposed model with deferential susceptibility and infectivity adding continuous age structure to an ODE model for a “Baka” pygmy group in the East of Cameroon (Africa). Assuming a very low contribution of carriers to infection compare to acute infectious, we estimate a probability p(a) (to develop symptomatic Hepatitis B state at age a) and acute carriers’ transmission rate. The value R0 = 2:67 >1 of the basic reproduction number estimated from data in the east of Cameroon confirms that HBV is endemic in the Baka pygmy group.
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