Melissa Wood, I. Haigh, Quan Le, H. Nguyen, Hoang Tran, S. Darby, R. Marsh, N. Skliris, J. Hirschi, R. Nicholls, N. Bloemendaal
{"title":"气候引发的风暴将导致未来南海地区风暴潮风险大幅增加","authors":"Melissa Wood, I. Haigh, Quan Le, H. Nguyen, Hoang Tran, S. Darby, R. Marsh, N. Skliris, J. Hirschi, R. Nicholls, N. Bloemendaal","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Coastal floods, driven by extreme sea levels, are one of the most dangerous\nnatural hazards. The people at highest risk are those living in low-lying\ncoastal areas exposed to tropical-cyclone-forced storm surges. Here we\napply a novel modelling framework to estimate past and/or present and future storm-surge-level and extreme-sea-level probabilities along the coastlines of southern\nChina, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia. A regional hydrodynamic\nmodel is configured to simulate 10 000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone\nactivity, representative of a past/present (1980–2017) and high-emission-scenario future (2015–2050) period. Results show that extreme storm surges, and therefore total water levels, will increase substantially in the coming decades, driven by an increase in the frequency of intense tropical\ncyclones. Storm surges along the southern Chinese and northern and southern Vietnamese\ncoastlines increase by up to 1 m, significantly larger than expected changes in mean sea-level rise over the same period. The length of coastline that is presently exposed to storm surge levels of 2.5 m or greater will more than double by 2050. Sections of Cambodian, Thai, and Malaysian coastlines are projected to experience storm surges (at higher return periods) in the\nfuture, not previously seen, due to a southward shift in tropical cyclone\ntracks. Given these findings, coastal flood management and adaptation in\nthese areas should be reviewed for their resilience against future extreme\nsea levels.\n","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region\",\"authors\":\"Melissa Wood, I. Haigh, Quan Le, H. Nguyen, Hoang Tran, S. Darby, R. Marsh, N. Skliris, J. Hirschi, R. Nicholls, N. Bloemendaal\",\"doi\":\"10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract. Coastal floods, driven by extreme sea levels, are one of the most dangerous\\nnatural hazards. The people at highest risk are those living in low-lying\\ncoastal areas exposed to tropical-cyclone-forced storm surges. Here we\\napply a novel modelling framework to estimate past and/or present and future storm-surge-level and extreme-sea-level probabilities along the coastlines of southern\\nChina, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia. A regional hydrodynamic\\nmodel is configured to simulate 10 000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone\\nactivity, representative of a past/present (1980–2017) and high-emission-scenario future (2015–2050) period. Results show that extreme storm surges, and therefore total water levels, will increase substantially in the coming decades, driven by an increase in the frequency of intense tropical\\ncyclones. Storm surges along the southern Chinese and northern and southern Vietnamese\\ncoastlines increase by up to 1 m, significantly larger than expected changes in mean sea-level rise over the same period. The length of coastline that is presently exposed to storm surge levels of 2.5 m or greater will more than double by 2050. Sections of Cambodian, Thai, and Malaysian coastlines are projected to experience storm surges (at higher return periods) in the\\nfuture, not previously seen, due to a southward shift in tropical cyclone\\ntracks. 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Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
Abstract. Coastal floods, driven by extreme sea levels, are one of the most dangerous
natural hazards. The people at highest risk are those living in low-lying
coastal areas exposed to tropical-cyclone-forced storm surges. Here we
apply a novel modelling framework to estimate past and/or present and future storm-surge-level and extreme-sea-level probabilities along the coastlines of southern
China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia. A regional hydrodynamic
model is configured to simulate 10 000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone
activity, representative of a past/present (1980–2017) and high-emission-scenario future (2015–2050) period. Results show that extreme storm surges, and therefore total water levels, will increase substantially in the coming decades, driven by an increase in the frequency of intense tropical
cyclones. Storm surges along the southern Chinese and northern and southern Vietnamese
coastlines increase by up to 1 m, significantly larger than expected changes in mean sea-level rise over the same period. The length of coastline that is presently exposed to storm surge levels of 2.5 m or greater will more than double by 2050. Sections of Cambodian, Thai, and Malaysian coastlines are projected to experience storm surges (at higher return periods) in the
future, not previously seen, due to a southward shift in tropical cyclone
tracks. Given these findings, coastal flood management and adaptation in
these areas should be reviewed for their resilience against future extreme
sea levels.
期刊介绍:
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) is an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences. Embracing a holistic Earth system science approach, NHESS serves a wide and diverse community of research scientists, practitioners, and decision makers concerned with detection of natural hazards, monitoring and modelling, vulnerability and risk assessment, and the design and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies, including economical, societal, and educational aspects.