Global Origins of Probabilism

In contrast to traditional historiography which, until recently, has generally explained the origin of probabilism based on works written in the European academic context, this article explores pragmatic works written mostly by —and for— experienced actors making practical use of their knowledge in fields such as trade, commerce and sacraments within the new global horizon of the Hispanic Monarchy. I propose a new, more global explanation of the progressive emergence of probabilism as a theological doctrine and method for the resolution of cases. Particular attention is granted to the use of probabilistic arguments in works of American missionary literature and writings of moral theology produced in the changing context of the central decades of the sixteenth century. This analysis allows us to understand their focus on evaluating probable alternatives in unfamiliar contexts and with unforeseen doubts that already existed in Vitoria’s ideas on economy and mission. As I show in this article, this emerging focus is a tendency that later Salamancan disciples such as the novohispano theologians Alonso de la Vera Cruz (1509-1584) and Tomás de Mercado (1523-1575) went on to radicalize by appealing to the need to follow merely probable opinions in a growing range of cases. Both of them adapted European moral and religious norms to a wide range of specifically early modern problems. The evaluation of the family or marriage customs of the indigenous American peoples and of frequent practices in the transatlantic economy such as money exchange and sale on credit were among the most discussed.