犹太人在约旦河和地中海之间的人口轨迹

IF 0.5 4区社会学 Q3 AREA STUDIES

Israel Affairs Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI:10.1080/13537121.2023.2206247

David F. Burg, J. Ausubel

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要本文利用奥斯曼帝国、英国和联合国的历史估计数据以及以色列人口普查局的最新数据，重新审视了现在以色列的犹太人口。逻辑模型产生向后的推断和向前的预测。该模型量化了三波犹太移民，总计约350万。从总人口数中减去移民数据，得出非移民本地出生人口的主要经验轨迹。一个结合移民和本地人口的多逻辑模型预测，2050年犹太人口约为1000万，这一水平在其他人的估计范围内较低。

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Jewish population trajectories between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea

ABSTRACT This article re-examines Jewish population in what is now Israel using historical estimates from Ottoman, Mandatory British and United Nations sources and recent data from the Israeli census bureau. A logistic model generates backward extrapolations and forward projections. The model quantifies three waves of Jewish immigration totalling about 3.5 million. Subtracting immigrant data from total population numbers gives the main empirical trajectory for non-immigrant native-born population. A multi-logistic model combining migrant and native populations projects a Jewish population of about 10 million in 2050, a level low in the range of estimates made by others.

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来源期刊

Israel Affairs AREA STUDIES-

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

25.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Whether your major interest is Israeli history or politics, literature or art, strategic affairs or economics, the Arab-Israeli conflict or Israel-diaspora relations, you will find articles and reviews that are incisive and contain even-handed analysis of the country and its problems in every issue of Israel Affairs, an international multidisciplinary journal. Scholarly and authoritative, yet straightforward and accessible, Israel Affairs aims to serve as a means of communication between the various communities interested in Israel: academics, policy-makers, practitioners, journalists and the informed public.