{"title":"航运中的零碳推进-基于马蒂斯- ship模型的氢和风能技术发展情景","authors":"Jonathan Köhler","doi":"10.3233/isp-190269","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper introduces the MATISSE-SHIP model for illustrative long term scenarios of technical change in shipping. It applies current theory for sustainable innovation – ‘transition theory’ – and uses an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach that explicitly represents a range of decision makers with different decision criteria. It models investment decisions for new ships, concentrating on the choice of power train and generates time paths of shares of a range of propulsion technologies. Two scenarios were generated to illustrate pathways under which hydrogen achieves a major market in shipping by 2050: 1) If current SO x /NO x legislation does not lead to the large scale adoption of LNG and there is an expectation of strengthened climate change policy in the medium term, wind/H 2 combined power systems take off, as they can demonstrate cost savings with GHG emissions reductions. The need for high power appli- cations may lead to the uptake of biofuels as they can provide significant reductions in GHG emissions, while not requiring new bunker infrastructure or changes in operating patterns. 2) If, in addition to these developments, there is acceptance of changes in operations towards lower speeds in container shipping and biofuels remain limited in their adoption (e.g. due to limited supply and high fuel costs), combined wind/H2 propulsion systems could be the main alternative to 2050. High power installations are then covered by fossil fuels to 2050, with Power to Gas/Liquid technologies being developed in the longer term.","PeriodicalId":45800,"journal":{"name":"International Shipbuilding Progress","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2020-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/isp-190269","citationCount":"6","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Zero carbon propulsion in shipping – scenarios for the development of hydrogen and wind technologies with the MATISSE-SHIP model\",\"authors\":\"Jonathan Köhler\",\"doi\":\"10.3233/isp-190269\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper introduces the MATISSE-SHIP model for illustrative long term scenarios of technical change in shipping. It applies current theory for sustainable innovation – ‘transition theory’ – and uses an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach that explicitly represents a range of decision makers with different decision criteria. It models investment decisions for new ships, concentrating on the choice of power train and generates time paths of shares of a range of propulsion technologies. Two scenarios were generated to illustrate pathways under which hydrogen achieves a major market in shipping by 2050: 1) If current SO x /NO x legislation does not lead to the large scale adoption of LNG and there is an expectation of strengthened climate change policy in the medium term, wind/H 2 combined power systems take off, as they can demonstrate cost savings with GHG emissions reductions. The need for high power appli- cations may lead to the uptake of biofuels as they can provide significant reductions in GHG emissions, while not requiring new bunker infrastructure or changes in operating patterns. 2) If, in addition to these developments, there is acceptance of changes in operations towards lower speeds in container shipping and biofuels remain limited in their adoption (e.g. due to limited supply and high fuel costs), combined wind/H2 propulsion systems could be the main alternative to 2050. High power installations are then covered by fossil fuels to 2050, with Power to Gas/Liquid technologies being developed in the longer term.\",\"PeriodicalId\":45800,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Shipbuilding Progress\",\"volume\":\"1 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-07-08\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3233/isp-190269\",\"citationCount\":\"6\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Shipbuilding Progress\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3233/isp-190269\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, MARINE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Shipbuilding Progress","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3233/isp-190269","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, MARINE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Zero carbon propulsion in shipping – scenarios for the development of hydrogen and wind technologies with the MATISSE-SHIP model
This paper introduces the MATISSE-SHIP model for illustrative long term scenarios of technical change in shipping. It applies current theory for sustainable innovation – ‘transition theory’ – and uses an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach that explicitly represents a range of decision makers with different decision criteria. It models investment decisions for new ships, concentrating on the choice of power train and generates time paths of shares of a range of propulsion technologies. Two scenarios were generated to illustrate pathways under which hydrogen achieves a major market in shipping by 2050: 1) If current SO x /NO x legislation does not lead to the large scale adoption of LNG and there is an expectation of strengthened climate change policy in the medium term, wind/H 2 combined power systems take off, as they can demonstrate cost savings with GHG emissions reductions. The need for high power appli- cations may lead to the uptake of biofuels as they can provide significant reductions in GHG emissions, while not requiring new bunker infrastructure or changes in operating patterns. 2) If, in addition to these developments, there is acceptance of changes in operations towards lower speeds in container shipping and biofuels remain limited in their adoption (e.g. due to limited supply and high fuel costs), combined wind/H2 propulsion systems could be the main alternative to 2050. High power installations are then covered by fossil fuels to 2050, with Power to Gas/Liquid technologies being developed in the longer term.
期刊介绍:
The journal International Shipbuilding Progress was founded in 1954. Each year four issues appear (in April, July, September and December). Publications submitted to ISP should describe scientific work of high international standards, advancing subjects related to the field of Marine Technology, such as: conceptual design structural design hydromechanics and dynamics maritime engineering production of all types of ships production of all other objects intended for marine use shipping science and all directly related subjects offshore engineering in relation to the marine environment ocean engineering subjects in relation to the marine environment