乌克兰农业保险动态、农业部门和粮食安全水平之间的结构关系建模

IF 0.7 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Z. Juhászová, A. Marci, O. Zhuravka, Natalia Sidelnyk, A. Boyko, T. Vasylieva
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的目标是制定科学和方法论的方法(模型),以确定农业保险对农业部门发展的影响以及乌克兰的粮食安全水平,从而实施适当的农业管理决策。结构建模已被选为本文的方法工具。建模过程是在结构方程的帮助下进行的。Statistica 12项目包中的结构方程建模工具用于完成这项任务(统计学、高级线性/非线性模型、结构方程建模)。研究发现,农业保险发展水平提高100%,农业生产指标提高30.8%。当农业生产发展水平提高100%时,粮食安全也相应提高45.6%。然而,如果农业保险发展水平提高100%,粮食安全水平将提高13.7%。因此,关于农业保险对农业部门发展的直接影响,并通过农业保险对乌克兰粮食安全的直接影响的假设得到了充分证实。文章作者提出,通过使用结构模型开发一个单因素和多因素回归方程系统,评估农业保险、农业部门和粮食安全发展水平之间关系的方向和强度。农业保险发展水平对乌克兰农业部门发展以及粮食安全水平的影响已经得到证实,国家对农业保险的支持机制应考虑所取得的结果。与此同时,乌克兰应在公私基础上发展农业保险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
MODELING THE STRUCTURAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE DYNAMICS OF AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE, THE AGRARIAN SECTOR AND THE LEVEL OF FOOD SECURITY IN UKRAINE
The article’s goal is to develop the scientific and methodological approach (model) to determine the influence of agricultural insurance on the agrarian sector development as well as the level of food security in Ukraine to implement the appropriate agricultural management decisions.Structural modelling has been chosen as the methodological tool of the article. The process of modelling was performed with the help of structural equations. The Structural Equation Modeling tools in the Statistica 12 program package were used to accomplish this task (Statistics, Advanced linear/nonlinear Models, Structural Equation Modeling).The study found that an increase of 100% in the level of development of agricultural insurance results in a 30.8% increase in the indicators of agricultural production. When the development level of agricultural production increases by 100%, there is a corresponding 45.6% increase in food security. However, if the agricultural insurance development level is increased by 100%, the food security one will be increased by 13.7%. Thus, the hypothesis about the direct influence of agricultural insurance on the development of the agricultural sector and, through it, on the food security of Ukraine is fully confirmed. The authors of the article offer to assess the direction and strength of the relationships between the development levels of agricultural insurance, the agricultural sector and food security by developing a system of single-factor and multifactor regression equations using structural modelling. The impact of the level of agricultural insurance development on the development of the agricultural sector along with the level of food security in Ukraine has been confirmed, and the mechanism of state support for agricultural insurance should consider the results obtained. Simultaneously, the development of agricultural insurance should be implemented on a public-private basis in Ukraine.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.60
自引率
20.00%
发文量
268
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