Remote sensing to assess the risk for cultural heritage: forecasting potential collapses due to rainfall in historic fortifications

PurposeHeavy rainfall is one of the main causes of the degradation of historic rammed Earth architecture. For this reason, ensuring the conservation thereof entails understanding the factors involved in these risk situations. The purpose of this study is to research three past events in which rainfall caused damage and collapse to historic rammed Earth fortifications in Andalusia in order to analyse whether it is possible to prevent similar situations from occurring in the future.Design/methodology/approachThe three case studies analysed are located in the south of Spain and occurred between 2017 and 2021. The hazard presented by rainfall within this context has been obtained from Art-Risk 3.0 (Registration No. 201999906530090). The vulnerability of the structures has been assessed with the Art-Risk 1 model. To characterise the strength, duration, and intensity of precipitation events, a workflow for the statistical use of GPM and GSMaP satellite resources has been designed, validated, and tested. The strength of the winds has been evaluated from data from ground-based weather stations.FindingsGSMaP precipitation data is very similar to data from ground-based weather stations. Regarding the three risk events analysed, although they occurred in areas with a torrential rainfall hazard, the damage was caused by non-intense rainfall that did not exceed 5 mm/hour. The continuation of the rainfall for several days and the poor state of conservation of the walls seem to be the factors that triggered the collapses that fundamentally affected the restoration mortars.Originality/valueA workflow applied to vulnerability and hazard analysis is presented, which validates the large-scale use of satellite images for past and present monitoring of heritage structure risk situations due to rain.