1950年至2100年巴西出生和死亡对人口老龄化的贡献

IF 0.4 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY
Luana Junqueira Dias Myrrha, C. Turra, Simone Wajnman
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引用次数: 14

摘要

本研究的目的是研究1950年至2100年间巴西的人口老龄化情况。我们采用Preston, Himes和Egger(1989)开发的方法,根据三种趋势来分解人口平均年龄的变化:人口老龄化的自然趋势,以及出生和死亡的振兴效应。我们使用了1950年至2000年CELADE (2007a, 2007b)的数据,以及2000年至2100年期间cedevar(情景BR)计算的人口预测(cedevar, 2008)。研究结果与先前的文献一致,表明生育率下降在老龄化过程中起着核心作用,同时死亡率转变也起着次要但日益重要的作用。在人口转型之初,巴西人口处于年轻和准稳定状态,大量的出生人口阻止了人口平均年龄的增长。在接下来的几十年里,出生率的持续下降导致了人口平均年龄的逐渐增加,预计到2100年,人口平均年龄将从1950年的23.4岁上升到51.1岁。年龄结构将逐渐再次趋向于准稳定的情况,人口的平均年龄变化不大,特别是由于死亡的影响,这将通过排除年龄大于平均年龄的个人,部分取代出生的作用。巴西在仅仅一个世纪的时间内发生了老年人大规模取代儿童的现象,这将导致人口老龄化,其特点是年龄结构的变化不大,这取决于未来的生育率和死亡率。因此,由于新的人口背景,当前对经济和社会制度进行调整的强烈需求可能会在未来随着我们接近新的准稳定情景而降温。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A contribuição dos nascimentos e óbitos para o envelhecimento populacional no Brasil, 1950 a 2100
The objective of this study is to examine population aging in Brazil between 1950 and 2100. We apply a method developed by Preston, Himes and Egger (1989) to decompose the variation in the mean age of the population according to three trends: the natural tendency of the population to grow older, and the rejuvenating effects of both births and deaths. We use data from CELADE (2007a, 2007b) for the years 1950 to 2000, and the population projections calculated by CEDEPLAR, scenario BR, for the 2000-2100 period (CEDEPLAR, 2008). The results are consistent with previous literature by suggesting the central role of fertility decline for the aging process, as well as a secondary but growing effect of mortality transition. At the beginning of the demographic transition, when the Brazilian population was young and quasi-stable, the large volume of births prevented the mean age of the population from increasing. In the following decades, the continuing fall in birth rates has resulted in a gradual increase in the mean age of the population, which is expected to rise from 23.4 years in 1950 to 51.1 years by 2100. Gradually, the age structure will tend again to a quasi-stable scenario with little variation in the mean age of the population, particularly due to the effect of deaths, which will partially replace the role of births by excluding individuals at ages older than the mean age. The large-scale replacement of children by elderly in Brazil, which occurred in the span of only a century, will give rise to an aged population, characterized by only modest variations in the age structure, depending on the future of fertility and mortality levels. Therefore, the current strong demand to adjust the economic and social systems due to the new demographic context may cool down in the future as we approach a new quasi-stable scenario.
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