Michael T Carlin, Mack S Costello, Madisyn A Flansburg, Alyssa Darden
{"title":"复制时代对心理科学I型错误率的再思考。","authors":"Michael T Carlin, Mack S Costello, Madisyn A Flansburg, Alyssa Darden","doi":"10.1037/met0000490","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Careful consideration of the tradeoff between Type I and Type II error rates when designing experiments is critical for maximizing statistical decision accuracy. Typically, Type I error rates (e.g., .05) are significantly lower than Type II error rates (e.g., .20 for .80 power) in psychological science. Further, positive findings (true effects and Type I errors) are more likely to be the focus of replication. This conventional approach leads to very high rates of Type II error. Analyses show that increasing the Type I error rate to .10, thereby increasing power and decreasing the Type II error rate for each test, leads to higher overall rates of correct statistical decisions. This increase of Type I error rate is consistent with, and most beneficial in the context of, the replication and \"New Statistics\" movements in psychology. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).</p>","PeriodicalId":20782,"journal":{"name":"Psychological methods","volume":"1 1","pages":"379-387"},"PeriodicalIF":7.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Reconsideration of the type I error rate for psychological science in the era of replication.\",\"authors\":\"Michael T Carlin, Mack S Costello, Madisyn A Flansburg, Alyssa Darden\",\"doi\":\"10.1037/met0000490\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Careful consideration of the tradeoff between Type I and Type II error rates when designing experiments is critical for maximizing statistical decision accuracy. Typically, Type I error rates (e.g., .05) are significantly lower than Type II error rates (e.g., .20 for .80 power) in psychological science. Further, positive findings (true effects and Type I errors) are more likely to be the focus of replication. This conventional approach leads to very high rates of Type II error. Analyses show that increasing the Type I error rate to .10, thereby increasing power and decreasing the Type II error rate for each test, leads to higher overall rates of correct statistical decisions. This increase of Type I error rate is consistent with, and most beneficial in the context of, the replication and \\\"New Statistics\\\" movements in psychology. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":20782,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Psychological methods\",\"volume\":\"1 1\",\"pages\":\"379-387\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Psychological methods\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"102\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000490\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"心理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2022/4/11 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Psychological methods","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000490","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2022/4/11 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Reconsideration of the type I error rate for psychological science in the era of replication.
Careful consideration of the tradeoff between Type I and Type II error rates when designing experiments is critical for maximizing statistical decision accuracy. Typically, Type I error rates (e.g., .05) are significantly lower than Type II error rates (e.g., .20 for .80 power) in psychological science. Further, positive findings (true effects and Type I errors) are more likely to be the focus of replication. This conventional approach leads to very high rates of Type II error. Analyses show that increasing the Type I error rate to .10, thereby increasing power and decreasing the Type II error rate for each test, leads to higher overall rates of correct statistical decisions. This increase of Type I error rate is consistent with, and most beneficial in the context of, the replication and "New Statistics" movements in psychology. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
期刊介绍：
Psychological Methods is devoted to the development and dissemination of methods for collecting, analyzing, understanding, and interpreting psychological data. Its purpose is the dissemination of innovations in research design, measurement, methodology, and quantitative and qualitative analysis to the psychological community; its further purpose is to promote effective communication about related substantive and methodological issues. The audience is expected to be diverse and to include those who develop new procedures, those who are responsible for undergraduate and graduate training in design, measurement, and statistics, as well as those who employ those procedures in research.
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