评论

IF 7.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Richard Rogerson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在一般层面上,本文是对劳动力市场摩擦模型中偏离理性预期的影响的探索。更具体地说,它研究了一些例子,其中一些(或全部)员工被认为表现出一种非常特殊的非理性预期形式,门齐奥将其称为固执的信念。正如人们对作者所期望的那样,建模具有高水平的艺术性和工艺,分析清晰而优雅,所有结果都伴随着强烈的直觉。这些例子表明,偏离理性预期会对劳动力市场的总体结果产生有趣的影响,其中一些结果相当具有挑衅性。特别是,他在他的一个例子中表明,一小部分有顽固信念的工人会使劳动力市场的结果对劳动力市场上的所有工人来说更加不稳定。也就是说,有错误认知的员工不仅伤害了自己,还伤害了所有员工。本文还提供了方法论上的贡献,展示了如何在具有战略工资设定和非理性信念的摩擦模型中制定均衡。本文中进行的练习有两个关键组成部分。一个组成部分是偏离理性预期的规范。第二个组成部分是将偏离理性预期的具体情况传播到总体劳动力市场结果的机制。接下来,我将依次讨论这些问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Comment
At a general level, this paper is an exploration of the effect of departures from rational expectations in frictional models of the labor market. More specifically, it studies a handful of examples in which some (or all) workers are assumed to exhibit a very specific form of irrational expectations that Menzio labels as stubborn beliefs. As one would expect with this author, the modeling features a high level of artistry and craftsmanship, the analysis is clear and elegant, and all of the results are accompanied with strong intuition. The examples illustrate that these departures from rational expectations can have interesting effects on aggregate labor-market outcomes, and some of the results are quite provocative. In particular, he shows in one of his examples that a small subset of workerswith stubborn beliefs canmake labormarket outcomes more volatile for all workers in the labor market. That is, workers with incorrect perceptions are not just hurting themselves, they are hurting all workers. The paper also offers amethodological contribution in showing how to formulate equilibrium in frictional models with strategic wage setting and irrational beliefs. There are two key components to the exercises carried out in the paper. One component is the specification of the departure from rational expectations. The second component is the mechanism through which the specific departure from rational expectations is propagated into aggregate labor-market outcomes. Inwhat follows, I will discuss each of these in turn.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
23
期刊介绍: The Nber Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields.
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