Covid - 19，经济增长与南非财政政策

IF 1.6 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-10-24 DOI:10.1111/saje.12270

P. Burger, E. Calitz

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引用次数: 29

摘要

即使在新冠肺炎之前，南非的财政政策也是不可持续的，因为多年来债务水平一直在快速上升。我们展示了在马尔可夫切换模型中对财政反应函数的估计。然而，新冠肺炎危机的影响进一步恶化了财政状况。为了在危机后恢复财政可持续性，一些评论家认为，更高的政府支出将使GDP充分增长，以稳定债务/GDP比率。我们对此表示反对，这表明尽管支出的实际增长刺激了经济增长（一种短期的一次性效应），但公共支出/GDP比率超过了该比率的增长对增长产生积极影响的水平。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Covid‐19, Economic Growth and South African Fiscal Policy

Even before Covid-19 South African fiscal policy was unsustainable, following years of fast-rising debt levels. We show this estimating a fiscal reaction function in a Markov-switching model. However, the effects of the Covid-19 crisis worsened the fiscal position further. To restore fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the crisis some commentators argue that higher government expenditure will grow GDP sufficiently to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio. We reject this, showing that although a real increase in expenditure stimulates economic growth (a short-run, once-off effect), the public expenditure/GDP ratio exceeds the level at which an increase in the ratio positively impacts growth.

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来源期刊

SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The South African Journal of Economics (SAJE) has a long and distinguished history, ranking amongst the oldest generalist journals in economics. In terms of editorial focus, the journal remains a generalist journal covering all fields in economics, but with a particular focus on developmental and African contexts. Toward this end, the editorial policy of the SAJE emphasizes scholarly work on developing countries, with African and Southern African development challenges receiving particular attention. While the SAJE remains a generalist journal, it encourages empirical work on developing and African economies. Importantly the focus is on both theoretical developments and methodological innovations that reflect developing country and African contexts and the policy challenges they pose. The objective of the journal is to be the premier vehicle for the publication of the most innovative work on development country and particularly African economic problems. It aims to be the target journal of choice not only for scholars located in Southern Africa, but of any scholar interested in the analysis of development challenges and their African applications. Clear theoretical foundations to work published should be a hallmark of the journal, and innovation in both theory and empirics appropriate to developing country and the African contexts are encouraged. In terms of submissions, the journal invites submissions primarily of original research articles, as well as survey articles and book reviews relevant to its context. In the case of both survey articles and book reviews, authors should note that a key minimum requirement is a critical reflection on the broader context of the existing literature.