使用带有删节数据的生存模型估计波兰老年人失业的可能性

Q4 Mathematics
Wioletta Grzenda
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引用次数: 0

摘要

当前的人口结构变化要求50岁或50岁以上的人更多地参与劳动力市场。先前的研究表明,重新就业的机会随着失业期的延长而减少。对于未达到法定退休年龄的老年人来说,这些机会也取决于他们退休的剩余时间。我们的研究旨在根据50-71岁人群的特点和失业期的长短来评估他们失业的可能性。我们使用了2019-2020年劳动力调查的数据。使用比例风险模型确定了决定就业状况的关键因素。我们将这些因素考虑在内,并使用直接调整后的生存曲线来显示波兰重返工作岗位的概率如何随着年龄的增长而变化。由于没有多少人在退休年龄前后就业,因此深入评估通过模型获得的预测的准确性对于评估结果至关重要。因此,在本文中,使用了一条与时间相关的ROC曲线。我们的研究结果表明,影响波兰老年人失业期后重返工作岗位的关键因素是他们是否达到60岁。在这方面证明重要的其他因素是老年人的性别和教育水平。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment for older people in Poland using survival models with censored data
Current demographic changes require greater participation of people aged 50 or older in the labour market. Previous research shows that the chances of returning to employment decrease with the length of the unemployment period. In the case of older people who have not reached the statutory retirement age, these chances also depend on the time they have left to retirement. Our study aims to assess the probability of leaving unemployment for people aged 50-71 based on their characteristics and the length of the unemployment period. We use data from the Labour Force Survey for 2019–2020. The key factors determining employment status are identified using the proportional hazard model. We take these factors into account and use the direct adjusted survival curve to show how the probability of returning to work in Poland changes as people age. Due to the fact that not many people take up employment around their retirement age, an in-depth evaluation of the accuracy of predictions obtained via the models is crucial to assess the results. Hence, in this paper, a time-dependent ROC curve is used. Our results indicate that the key factor that influences the return to work after an unemployment period in the case of older people in Poland is whether they reached the age of 60. Other factors that proved important in this context are the sex and the education level of older people.
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来源期刊
Statistics in Transition
Statistics in Transition Decision Sciences-Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
CiteScore
1.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
9 weeks
期刊介绍: Statistics in Transition (SiT) is an international journal published jointly by the Polish Statistical Association (PTS) and the Central Statistical Office of Poland (CSO/GUS), which sponsors this publication. Launched in 1993, it was issued twice a year until 2006; since then it appears - under a slightly changed title, Statistics in Transition new series - three times a year; and after 2013 as a regular quarterly journal." The journal provides a forum for exchange of ideas and experience amongst members of international community of statisticians, data producers and users, including researchers, teachers, policy makers and the general public. Its initially dominating focus on statistical issues pertinent to transition from centrally planned to a market-oriented economy has gradually been extended to embracing statistical problems related to development and modernization of the system of public (official) statistics, in general.
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