中国突发性干旱期间热浪影响的概率分析

IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science
Xinyu Zhang, Yi Liu, Ye Zhu, Qiang Ma, Gourbesville Philippe, Yanping Qu, Hang Yin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

鉴于热浪和干旱对社会和环境的破坏性影响,在全球变暖的背景下,它们越来越多地同时发生,引起了科学界的广泛关注。在这项研究中,通过基于元高斯的条件概率模型量化了突发干旱发生的每一周的热浪对土壤水分强化率的影响。结果显示,自20世纪90年代中期以来,热浪和山洪干旱都变得更加频繁。就季节分布而言,除了西南部地区的突发干旱滞后于热浪之外,这两个极端气候之间有很好的同步性。在东北部、北部和西南部地区发现了热浪和山洪暴发之间的强烈相关性。不同出现时间的热浪在形成快旱时表现不同,同时存在显著的区域差异。短期即将到来的高温条件对突发性干旱的爆发至关重要,尤其是在突发性干旱开始的那一周,热浪的出现可能会使土壤水分的强化率比那些在发展阶段没有热浪的土壤水分的增强率增加20%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Probabilistic analysis on the influences of heatwaves during the onset of flash droughts over China
The increasing concurrences of heatwaves and droughts in the context of global warming have attracted much attention from the scientific community given their devastating social and environmental impacts. In this study, the effects of heatwaves in each adjacent week of flash drought onset on the intensification rate of soil moisture were quantified through a meta-Gaussian-based conditional probability model. Results showed that both heatwaves and flash droughts have become more frequent since the middle of the 1990s. For the seasonal distributions, except for the southwestern region where flash droughts lagged behind heatwaves, there was a good synchronization between the two climate extremes. Strong correlations between heatwaves and flash droughts were found in the northeastern, northern, and southwestern regions. Heatwaves with varied timing of emergence behave differently on the formation of flash droughts, along with significant regional differences. Short-term impending hot conditions were crucial for the breakout of flash droughts, especially for the week when flash droughts were initiated, the emergence of heatwaves was likely to increase the intensification rate of soil moisture by 20% compared to those with no heatwaves in their development stage.
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来源期刊
Hydrology Research
Hydrology Research Environmental Science-Water Science and Technology
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
7.40%
发文量
70
审稿时长
17 weeks
期刊介绍: Hydrology Research provides international coverage on all aspects of hydrology in its widest sense, and welcomes the submission of papers from across the subject. While emphasis is placed on studies of the hydrological cycle, the Journal also covers the physics and chemistry of water. Hydrology Research is intended to be a link between basic hydrological research and the practical application of scientific results within the broad field of water management.
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