{"title":"2006-2020年中国肺结核报告发病率的年龄-时期-队列分析","authors":"Zhe Dong, Qi-Qi Wang, Shi-Cheng Yu, Fei Huang, Jian-Jun Liu, Hong-Yan Yao, Yan-Lin Zhao","doi":"10.1186/s40249-022-01009-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Tuberculosis (TB) poses a severe public health challenge in China and worldwide. This study evaluated the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on reported incidence trends of TB based on population and refined the characteristics of high-risk groups.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Aggregate data that reported pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases from China Tuberculosis Management Information System (TBIMS) from 2006 to 2020 were used to analyze effect coefficients through the age-period-cohort (APC) model based on intrinsic estimator (IE) method, and converted them into relative risk (RR) to estimate trends.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 14.82 million cases of PTB were reported in China from 2006 to 2020, showing a continuous downward trend. The reporting rate increased with age by age group, with 70-74 years old being 2-3 times higher than that in 20-24 years old. APC analysis model showed that age effects were bimodal in 20-24 years old [RR = 2.29, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.73-3.03] and 70-74 years old (RR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.67-2.27), and lower than the overall average in the groups under 15 years old. Stratified results showed that the risk was higher for women under age 40 than men and higher for men over 40. The risk was higher in urban than in rural areas under 30 years old and slightly higher in rural than in urban between 30 and 64 years old. The risk for 15-34 years old was significantly higher in the east than in other regions. The period effects showed a decreasing trend, and the risk was higher in rural in recent years. Except for cohorts born in 1961-1965 and 2001-2005, where the RR increased, the later the cohort was born, the lower the risk. The cohort 1926-1930 in eastern had the highest risk (RR = 3.49, 95% CI: 2.44-4.98).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The reported incidence of PTB continued to decline in China from 2006 to 2020. The young (20-24 years old) and the elderly (70-74 years old) were equally at high risk. There were differences in the age, period and cohort effects on PTB incidence among gender, urban-rural and regions. Our findings better reflected the characteristics of high-risk populations, thus contributing to the development of timely and effective intervention strategies, and providing clues for etiological research.</p>","PeriodicalId":13587,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty","volume":" ","pages":"85"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2022-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9331155/pdf/","citationCount":"14","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis reported incidence, China, 2006-2020.\",\"authors\":\"Zhe Dong, Qi-Qi Wang, Shi-Cheng Yu, Fei Huang, Jian-Jun Liu, Hong-Yan Yao, Yan-Lin Zhao\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s40249-022-01009-4\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Tuberculosis (TB) poses a severe public health challenge in China and worldwide. This study evaluated the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on reported incidence trends of TB based on population and refined the characteristics of high-risk groups.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Aggregate data that reported pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases from China Tuberculosis Management Information System (TBIMS) from 2006 to 2020 were used to analyze effect coefficients through the age-period-cohort (APC) model based on intrinsic estimator (IE) method, and converted them into relative risk (RR) to estimate trends.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 14.82 million cases of PTB were reported in China from 2006 to 2020, showing a continuous downward trend. The reporting rate increased with age by age group, with 70-74 years old being 2-3 times higher than that in 20-24 years old. APC analysis model showed that age effects were bimodal in 20-24 years old [RR = 2.29, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.73-3.03] and 70-74 years old (RR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.67-2.27), and lower than the overall average in the groups under 15 years old. Stratified results showed that the risk was higher for women under age 40 than men and higher for men over 40. The risk was higher in urban than in rural areas under 30 years old and slightly higher in rural than in urban between 30 and 64 years old. The risk for 15-34 years old was significantly higher in the east than in other regions. The period effects showed a decreasing trend, and the risk was higher in rural in recent years. Except for cohorts born in 1961-1965 and 2001-2005, where the RR increased, the later the cohort was born, the lower the risk. The cohort 1926-1930 in eastern had the highest risk (RR = 3.49, 95% CI: 2.44-4.98).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The reported incidence of PTB continued to decline in China from 2006 to 2020. The young (20-24 years old) and the elderly (70-74 years old) were equally at high risk. There were differences in the age, period and cohort effects on PTB incidence among gender, urban-rural and regions. Our findings better reflected the characteristics of high-risk populations, thus contributing to the development of timely and effective intervention strategies, and providing clues for etiological research.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":13587,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Infectious Diseases of Poverty\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"85\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-07-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9331155/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"14\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Infectious Diseases of Poverty\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-022-01009-4\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-022-01009-4","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis reported incidence, China, 2006-2020.
Background: Tuberculosis (TB) poses a severe public health challenge in China and worldwide. This study evaluated the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on reported incidence trends of TB based on population and refined the characteristics of high-risk groups.
Methods: Aggregate data that reported pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases from China Tuberculosis Management Information System (TBIMS) from 2006 to 2020 were used to analyze effect coefficients through the age-period-cohort (APC) model based on intrinsic estimator (IE) method, and converted them into relative risk (RR) to estimate trends.
Results: A total of 14.82 million cases of PTB were reported in China from 2006 to 2020, showing a continuous downward trend. The reporting rate increased with age by age group, with 70-74 years old being 2-3 times higher than that in 20-24 years old. APC analysis model showed that age effects were bimodal in 20-24 years old [RR = 2.29, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.73-3.03] and 70-74 years old (RR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.67-2.27), and lower than the overall average in the groups under 15 years old. Stratified results showed that the risk was higher for women under age 40 than men and higher for men over 40. The risk was higher in urban than in rural areas under 30 years old and slightly higher in rural than in urban between 30 and 64 years old. The risk for 15-34 years old was significantly higher in the east than in other regions. The period effects showed a decreasing trend, and the risk was higher in rural in recent years. Except for cohorts born in 1961-1965 and 2001-2005, where the RR increased, the later the cohort was born, the lower the risk. The cohort 1926-1930 in eastern had the highest risk (RR = 3.49, 95% CI: 2.44-4.98).
Conclusions: The reported incidence of PTB continued to decline in China from 2006 to 2020. The young (20-24 years old) and the elderly (70-74 years old) were equally at high risk. There were differences in the age, period and cohort effects on PTB incidence among gender, urban-rural and regions. Our findings better reflected the characteristics of high-risk populations, thus contributing to the development of timely and effective intervention strategies, and providing clues for etiological research.
期刊介绍：
Infectious Diseases of Poverty is a peer-reviewed, open access journal that focuses on essential public health questions related to infectious diseases of poverty. It covers a wide range of topics and methods, including the biology of pathogens and vectors, diagnosis and detection, treatment and case management, epidemiology and modeling, zoonotic hosts and animal reservoirs, control strategies and implementation, new technologies, and their application.
The journal also explores the impact of transdisciplinary or multisectoral approaches on health systems, ecohealth, environmental management, and innovative technologies. It aims to provide a platform for the exchange of research and ideas that can contribute to the improvement of public health in resource-limited settings.
In summary, Infectious Diseases of Poverty aims to address the urgent challenges posed by infectious diseases in impoverished populations. By publishing high-quality research in various areas, the journal seeks to advance our understanding of these diseases and contribute to the development of effective strategies for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.
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