{"title":"在研究统计和流行病学的研究人员和专业人士中,对p值和统计检验的误解一直存在。","authors":"Per Lytsy, Mikael Hartman, Ronnie Pingel","doi":"10.48101/ujms.v127.8760","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The aim was to investigate inferences of statistically significant test results among persons with more or less statistical education and research experience.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A total of 75 doctoral students and 64 statisticians/epidemiologist responded to a web questionnaire about inferences of statistically significant findings. Participants were asked about their education and research experience, and also whether a 'statistically significant' test result (<i>P</i> = 0.024, α-level 0.05) could be inferred as proof or probability statements about the truth or falsehood of the null hypothesis (H<sub>0</sub>) and the alternative hypothesis (H<sub>1</sub>).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Almost all participants reported having a university degree, and among statisticians/epidemiologist, most reported having a university degree in statistics and were working professionally with statistics. Overall, 9.4% of statisticians/epidemiologist and 24.0% of doctoral students responded that the statistically significant finding proved that H<sub>0</sub> is not true, and 73.4% of statisticians/epidemiologists and 53.3% of doctoral students responded that the statistically significant finding indicated that H<sub>0</sub> is improbable. Corresponding numbers about inferences about the alternative hypothesis (H<sub>1</sub>) were 12.0% and 6.2% about proving H<sub>1</sub> being true and 62.7 and 62.5% for the conclusion that H<sub>1</sub> is probable. Correct inferences to both questions, which is that a statistically significant finding cannot be inferred as either proof or a measure of a hypothesis' probability, were given by 10.7% of doctoral students and 12.5% of statisticians/epidemiologists.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Misinterpretation of <i>P</i>-values and statistically significant test results persists also among persons who have substantial statistical education and who work professionally with statistics.</p>","PeriodicalId":23458,"journal":{"name":"Upsala journal of medical sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9383044/pdf/","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Misinterpretations of P-values and statistical tests persists among researchers and professionals working with statistics and epidemiology.\",\"authors\":\"Per Lytsy, Mikael Hartman, Ronnie Pingel\",\"doi\":\"10.48101/ujms.v127.8760\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The aim was to investigate inferences of statistically significant test results among persons with more or less statistical education and research experience.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A total of 75 doctoral students and 64 statisticians/epidemiologist responded to a web questionnaire about inferences of statistically significant findings. Participants were asked about their education and research experience, and also whether a 'statistically significant' test result (<i>P</i> = 0.024, α-level 0.05) could be inferred as proof or probability statements about the truth or falsehood of the null hypothesis (H<sub>0</sub>) and the alternative hypothesis (H<sub>1</sub>).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Almost all participants reported having a university degree, and among statisticians/epidemiologist, most reported having a university degree in statistics and were working professionally with statistics. Overall, 9.4% of statisticians/epidemiologist and 24.0% of doctoral students responded that the statistically significant finding proved that H<sub>0</sub> is not true, and 73.4% of statisticians/epidemiologists and 53.3% of doctoral students responded that the statistically significant finding indicated that H<sub>0</sub> is improbable. Corresponding numbers about inferences about the alternative hypothesis (H<sub>1</sub>) were 12.0% and 6.2% about proving H<sub>1</sub> being true and 62.7 and 62.5% for the conclusion that H<sub>1</sub> is probable. Correct inferences to both questions, which is that a statistically significant finding cannot be inferred as either proof or a measure of a hypothesis' probability, were given by 10.7% of doctoral students and 12.5% of statisticians/epidemiologists.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Misinterpretation of <i>P</i>-values and statistically significant test results persists also among persons who have substantial statistical education and who work professionally with statistics.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":23458,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Upsala journal of medical sciences\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-08-04\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9383044/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Upsala journal of medical sciences\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.48101/ujms.v127.8760\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2022/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Upsala journal of medical sciences","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.48101/ujms.v127.8760","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2022/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Misinterpretations of P-values and statistical tests persists among researchers and professionals working with statistics and epidemiology.
Background: The aim was to investigate inferences of statistically significant test results among persons with more or less statistical education and research experience.
Methods: A total of 75 doctoral students and 64 statisticians/epidemiologist responded to a web questionnaire about inferences of statistically significant findings. Participants were asked about their education and research experience, and also whether a 'statistically significant' test result (P = 0.024, α-level 0.05) could be inferred as proof or probability statements about the truth or falsehood of the null hypothesis (H0) and the alternative hypothesis (H1).
Results: Almost all participants reported having a university degree, and among statisticians/epidemiologist, most reported having a university degree in statistics and were working professionally with statistics. Overall, 9.4% of statisticians/epidemiologist and 24.0% of doctoral students responded that the statistically significant finding proved that H0 is not true, and 73.4% of statisticians/epidemiologists and 53.3% of doctoral students responded that the statistically significant finding indicated that H0 is improbable. Corresponding numbers about inferences about the alternative hypothesis (H1) were 12.0% and 6.2% about proving H1 being true and 62.7 and 62.5% for the conclusion that H1 is probable. Correct inferences to both questions, which is that a statistically significant finding cannot be inferred as either proof or a measure of a hypothesis' probability, were given by 10.7% of doctoral students and 12.5% of statisticians/epidemiologists.
Conclusions: Misinterpretation of P-values and statistically significant test results persists also among persons who have substantial statistical education and who work professionally with statistics.
期刊介绍:
Upsala Journal of Medical Sciences is published for the Upsala Medical Society. It has been published since 1865 and is one of the oldest medical journals in Sweden.
The journal publishes clinical and experimental original works in the medical field. Although focusing on regional issues, the journal always welcomes contributions from outside Sweden.
Specially extended issues are published occasionally, dealing with special topics, congress proceedings and academic dissertations.