在研究统计和流行病学的研究人员和专业人士中,对p值和统计检验的误解一直存在。

IF 1.5 4区 医学 Q2 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL
Upsala journal of medical sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-04 eCollection Date: 2022-01-01 DOI:10.48101/ujms.v127.8760
Per Lytsy, Mikael Hartman, Ronnie Pingel
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引用次数: 1

摘要

背景:目的是调查具有或多或少统计学教育和研究经验的人的统计显著性检验结果的推论。方法:对75名博士生和64名统计学家/流行病学家进行网络问卷调查,调查结果具有统计学意义。参与者被问及他们的教育和研究经历,以及是否“统计显著”的检验结果(P = 0.024, α-水平0.05)可以推断为证明或概率陈述关于零假设(H0)和备选假设(H1)的真假。结果:几乎所有的参与者都报告拥有大学学位,在统计学家/流行病学家中,大多数报告拥有统计学的大学学位,并且从事统计专业工作。总体而言,9.4%的统计学家/流行病学家和24.0%的博士生认为具有统计学意义的发现证明H0不成立,73.4%的统计学家/流行病学家和53.3%的博士生认为具有统计学意义的发现表明H0不可能成立。关于备选假设(H1)的相应推论,证明H1为真的分别为12.0%和6.2%,证明H1为可能的分别为62.7%和62.5%。10.7%的博士生和12.5%的统计学家/流行病学家对这两个问题做出了正确的推断,即统计上的重大发现既不能作为证据,也不能作为假设概率的衡量标准。结论:对p值和统计显著性检验结果的误解也存在于受过大量统计学教育和从事统计学专业工作的人员中。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Misinterpretations of P-values and statistical tests persists among researchers and professionals working with statistics and epidemiology.

Misinterpretations of P-values and statistical tests persists among researchers and professionals working with statistics and epidemiology.

Misinterpretations of P-values and statistical tests persists among researchers and professionals working with statistics and epidemiology.

Background: The aim was to investigate inferences of statistically significant test results among persons with more or less statistical education and research experience.

Methods: A total of 75 doctoral students and 64 statisticians/epidemiologist responded to a web questionnaire about inferences of statistically significant findings. Participants were asked about their education and research experience, and also whether a 'statistically significant' test result (P = 0.024, α-level 0.05) could be inferred as proof or probability statements about the truth or falsehood of the null hypothesis (H0) and the alternative hypothesis (H1).

Results: Almost all participants reported having a university degree, and among statisticians/epidemiologist, most reported having a university degree in statistics and were working professionally with statistics. Overall, 9.4% of statisticians/epidemiologist and 24.0% of doctoral students responded that the statistically significant finding proved that H0 is not true, and 73.4% of statisticians/epidemiologists and 53.3% of doctoral students responded that the statistically significant finding indicated that H0 is improbable. Corresponding numbers about inferences about the alternative hypothesis (H1) were 12.0% and 6.2% about proving H1 being true and 62.7 and 62.5% for the conclusion that H1 is probable. Correct inferences to both questions, which is that a statistically significant finding cannot be inferred as either proof or a measure of a hypothesis' probability, were given by 10.7% of doctoral students and 12.5% of statisticians/epidemiologists.

Conclusions: Misinterpretation of P-values and statistically significant test results persists also among persons who have substantial statistical education and who work professionally with statistics.

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来源期刊
Upsala journal of medical sciences
Upsala journal of medical sciences 医学-医学:内科
CiteScore
5.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
31
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Upsala Journal of Medical Sciences is published for the Upsala Medical Society. It has been published since 1865 and is one of the oldest medical journals in Sweden. The journal publishes clinical and experimental original works in the medical field. Although focusing on regional issues, the journal always welcomes contributions from outside Sweden. Specially extended issues are published occasionally, dealing with special topics, congress proceedings and academic dissertations.
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