Evaluation of an individualized facial growth prediction model based on the multivariate partial least squares method.

Objectives: To develop a facial growth prediction model incorporating individual skeletal and soft tissue characteristics.

Materials and methods: Serial longitudinal lateral cephalograms were collected from 303 children (166 girls and 137 boys), who had never undergone orthodontic treatment. A growth prediction model was devised by applying the multivariate partial least squares (PLS) algorithm, with 161 predictor variables. Response variables comprised 78 lateral cephalogram landmarks. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to investigate factors influencing growth prediction errors.

Results: Using the leave-one-out cross-validation method, a PLS model with 30 components was developed. Younger age at prediction resulted in greater prediction error (0.03 mm/y). Further, prediction error increased in proportion to the growth prediction interval (0.24 mm/y). Girls, subjects with Class II malocclusion, growth in the vertical direction, skeletal landmarks, and landmarks on the maxilla were associated with more accurate prediction results than boys, subjects with Class I or III malocclusion, growth in the anteroposterior direction, soft tissue landmarks, and landmarks on the mandible, respectively.

Conclusions: The prediction error of the prediction model was proportional to the remaining growth potential. PLS growth prediction seems to be a versatile approach that can incorporate large numbers of predictor variables to predict numerous landmarks for an individual subject.