预测预防的有效性:流行病学模型的作用。

Helen L Walls, Anna Peeters, Christopher M Reid, Danny Liew, John J McNeil
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引用次数: 7

摘要

众所周知,目前人口老龄化和卫生技术进步的结合导致发达国家的卫生费用迅速增加。预防是控制卫生费用的潜在重要途径。在成本压力巨大的环境中,加上疾病预防和促进健康方面的发展,决策者对预防战略的目标和优先次序采取系统和协调的办法就越来越重要。然而,这种系统的方法是困难的,因为预防战略需要长期比较,在不同的人群中,在现实生活环境中,没有发现在大多数试验。来自流行病学模型的信息可以提供所需的证据基础。在这篇综述中,我们概述了流行病学建模在这方面的作用,并通过实例详细说明了它的应用。编辑的战略意义:决策者和研究人员将受益于本文对流行病学建模作为一种产生转化证据的手段的效用的描述,这有助于确定基于数据的预防方法的优先次序,并弥合临床研究与公共卫生实践之间的差距。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Predicting the effectiveness of prevention: a role for epidemiological modeling.

It is well known that the current combination of aging populations and advances in health technology is resulting in burgeoning health costs in developed countries. Prevention is a potentially important way of containing health costs. In an environment of intense cost pressures, coupled with developments in disease prevention and health promotion, it is increasingly important for decision-makers to have a systematic, coordinated approach to the targeting and prioritization of preventive strategies. However, such a systematic approach is made difficult by the fact that preventive strategies need to be compared over the long term, in a variety of populations, and in real life settings not found in most trials. Information from epidemiological models can provide the required evidence base. In this review, we outline the role of epidemiological modeling in this context and detail its application using examples. Editors' Strategic Implications: Policymakers and researchers will benefit from this description of the utility of epidemiological modeling as a means of generating translational evidence that helps to prioritize data-based prevention approaches and bridge the gap between clinical research and public health practice.

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