{"title":"表面的流行,真实的流行。","authors":"Farrokh Habibzadeh, Parham Habibzadeh, Mahboobeh Yadollahie","doi":"10.11613/BM.2022.020101","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Serologic tests are important for conducting seroepidemiologic and prevalence studies. However, the tests used are typically imperfect and produce false-positive and false-negative results. This is why the seropositive rate (apparent prevalence) does not typically reflect the true prevalence of the disease or condition of interest. Herein, we discuss the way the true prevalence could be derived from the apparent prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity. A computer simulation based on the Monte-Carlo algorithm was also used to further examine a situation where the measured test sensitivity and specificity are also uncertain. We then complete our review with a real example. The apparent prevalence observed in many prevalence studies published in medical literature is a biased estimation and cannot be interpreted correctly unless we correct the value.</p>","PeriodicalId":9021,"journal":{"name":"Biochemia Medica","volume":" ","pages":"020101"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2022-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9195606/pdf/","citationCount":"10","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The apparent prevalence, the true prevalence.\",\"authors\":\"Farrokh Habibzadeh, Parham Habibzadeh, Mahboobeh Yadollahie\",\"doi\":\"10.11613/BM.2022.020101\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Serologic tests are important for conducting seroepidemiologic and prevalence studies. However, the tests used are typically imperfect and produce false-positive and false-negative results. This is why the seropositive rate (apparent prevalence) does not typically reflect the true prevalence of the disease or condition of interest. Herein, we discuss the way the true prevalence could be derived from the apparent prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity. A computer simulation based on the Monte-Carlo algorithm was also used to further examine a situation where the measured test sensitivity and specificity are also uncertain. We then complete our review with a real example. The apparent prevalence observed in many prevalence studies published in medical literature is a biased estimation and cannot be interpreted correctly unless we correct the value.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":9021,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Biochemia Medica\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"020101\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-06-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9195606/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"10\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Biochemia Medica\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.11613/BM.2022.020101\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MEDICAL LABORATORY TECHNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Biochemia Medica","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.11613/BM.2022.020101","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MEDICAL LABORATORY TECHNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Serologic tests are important for conducting seroepidemiologic and prevalence studies. However, the tests used are typically imperfect and produce false-positive and false-negative results. This is why the seropositive rate (apparent prevalence) does not typically reflect the true prevalence of the disease or condition of interest. Herein, we discuss the way the true prevalence could be derived from the apparent prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity. A computer simulation based on the Monte-Carlo algorithm was also used to further examine a situation where the measured test sensitivity and specificity are also uncertain. We then complete our review with a real example. The apparent prevalence observed in many prevalence studies published in medical literature is a biased estimation and cannot be interpreted correctly unless we correct the value.
期刊介绍:
Biochemia Medica is the official peer-reviewed journal of the Croatian Society of Medical Biochemistry and Laboratory Medicine. Journal provides a wide coverage of research in all aspects of clinical chemistry and laboratory medicine. Following categories fit into the scope of the Journal: general clinical chemistry, haematology and haemostasis, molecular diagnostics and endocrinology. Development, validation and verification of analytical techniques and methods applicable to clinical chemistry and laboratory medicine are welcome as well as studies dealing with laboratory organization, automation and quality control. Journal publishes on a regular basis educative preanalytical case reports (Preanalytical mysteries), articles dealing with applied biostatistics (Lessons in biostatistics) and research integrity (Research integrity corner).