Ben Brewer, Karen Smith Conway, Deniz Ozabaci, Robert S Woodward
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US Health Care Expenditures, GDP and Health Policy Reforms: Evidence from End-of-Sample Structural Break Tests.
This research investigates the over-time stability of the aggregate US healthcare expenditure (HCE)-GDP relationship, focusing on periods of healthcare reforms. The most consequential reforms-Medicaid/Medicare and the Affordable Care Act (ACA)-are challenging to study because they occur near the ends of the available data. Using annual national- and state-level data and a battery of structural break tests, we find the HCE-GDP relationship to be overwhelmingly stable. An ancillary analysis around the 2006 Massachusetts healthcare reform, which avoids the confounding effects of the Great Recession and the staggered rollout of the ACA, likewise finds no change.
期刊介绍：
The Eastern Economic Journal, a quarterly publication of the Eastern Economic Association, was established in 1973. The EEJ publishes papers written from every perspective, in all areas of economics and is committed to free and open intellectual inquiry from diverse philosophical perspectives. It welcomes manuscripts that are methodological and philosophical as well as empirical and theoretical. Readability and general interest are major factors in publication decision.
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