Ze-Yu Zhao, Yan Niu, Li Luo, Qing-Qing Hu, Tian-Long Yang, Mei-Jie Chu, Qiu-Ping Chen, Zhao Lei, Jia Rui, Cheng-Long Song, Sheng-Nan Lin, Yao Wang, Jing-Wen Xu, Yuan-Zhao Zhu, Xing-Chun Liu, Meng Yang, Jie-Feng Huang, Wei-Kang Liu, Bin Deng, Chan Liu, Zhuo-Yang Li, Pei-Hua Li, Yan-Hua Su, Ben-Hua Zhao, Wen-Long Huang, Roger Frutos, Tian-Mu Chen
{"title":"控制COVID-19的最佳疫苗接种策略:中国武汉市的模型研究","authors":"Ze-Yu Zhao, Yan Niu, Li Luo, Qing-Qing Hu, Tian-Long Yang, Mei-Jie Chu, Qiu-Ping Chen, Zhao Lei, Jia Rui, Cheng-Long Song, Sheng-Nan Lin, Yao Wang, Jing-Wen Xu, Yuan-Zhao Zhu, Xing-Chun Liu, Meng Yang, Jie-Feng Huang, Wei-Kang Liu, Bin Deng, Chan Liu, Zhuo-Yang Li, Pei-Hua Li, Yan-Hua Su, Ben-Hua Zhao, Wen-Long Huang, Roger Frutos, Tian-Mu Chen","doi":"10.1186/s40249-021-00922-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Reaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (R<sub>eff</sub>) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (R<sub>eff</sub> = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (R<sub>eff</sub> = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (R<sub>eff</sub> = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45-64 years old.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Approximately 85% of the total population (nearly 1.2 billion people) should be vaccinated to build an immune barrier in China to safely consider removing border restrictions. Based on these results, we concluded that 90% of adults aged 15-64 years should first be vaccinated to prevent transmission in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":13587,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty","volume":"10 1","pages":"140"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2021-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8712277/pdf/","citationCount":"10","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The optimal vaccination strategy to control COVID-19: a modeling study in Wuhan City, China.\",\"authors\":\"Ze-Yu Zhao, Yan Niu, Li Luo, Qing-Qing Hu, Tian-Long Yang, Mei-Jie Chu, Qiu-Ping Chen, Zhao Lei, Jia Rui, Cheng-Long Song, Sheng-Nan Lin, Yao Wang, Jing-Wen Xu, Yuan-Zhao Zhu, Xing-Chun Liu, Meng Yang, Jie-Feng Huang, Wei-Kang Liu, Bin Deng, Chan Liu, Zhuo-Yang Li, Pei-Hua Li, Yan-Hua Su, Ben-Hua Zhao, Wen-Long Huang, Roger Frutos, Tian-Mu Chen\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s40249-021-00922-4\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Reaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (R<sub>eff</sub>) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (R<sub>eff</sub> = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (R<sub>eff</sub> = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (R<sub>eff</sub> = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45-64 years old.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Approximately 85% of the total population (nearly 1.2 billion people) should be vaccinated to build an immune barrier in China to safely consider removing border restrictions. Based on these results, we concluded that 90% of adults aged 15-64 years should first be vaccinated to prevent transmission in China.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":13587,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Infectious Diseases of Poverty\",\"volume\":\"10 1\",\"pages\":\"140\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-12-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8712277/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"10\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Infectious Diseases of Poverty\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-021-00922-4\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-021-00922-4","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
The optimal vaccination strategy to control COVID-19: a modeling study in Wuhan City, China.
Background: Reaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China.
Methods: We collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups.
Results: A total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (Reff = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (Reff = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (Reff = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45-64 years old.
Conclusions: Approximately 85% of the total population (nearly 1.2 billion people) should be vaccinated to build an immune barrier in China to safely consider removing border restrictions. Based on these results, we concluded that 90% of adults aged 15-64 years should first be vaccinated to prevent transmission in China.
期刊介绍：
Infectious Diseases of Poverty is a peer-reviewed, open access journal that focuses on essential public health questions related to infectious diseases of poverty. It covers a wide range of topics and methods, including the biology of pathogens and vectors, diagnosis and detection, treatment and case management, epidemiology and modeling, zoonotic hosts and animal reservoirs, control strategies and implementation, new technologies, and their application.
The journal also explores the impact of transdisciplinary or multisectoral approaches on health systems, ecohealth, environmental management, and innovative technologies. It aims to provide a platform for the exchange of research and ideas that can contribute to the improvement of public health in resource-limited settings.
In summary, Infectious Diseases of Poverty aims to address the urgent challenges posed by infectious diseases in impoverished populations. By publishing high-quality research in various areas, the journal seeks to advance our understanding of these diseases and contribute to the development of effective strategies for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.
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