基于复杂网络的无症状 COVID-19 感染预测。

IF 2 4区 计算机科学 Q3 AUTOMATION & CONTROL SYSTEMS
Yili Chen, Haoming He, Dakang Liu, Xie Zhang, Jingpei Wang, Yixiao Yang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情将于 2019 年底爆发,并威胁全球公共卫生、社会稳定和经济发展,其特点是传染性强且无症状感染。目前,世界各国政府正在采取果断行动来限制 COVID-19 对人类和经济的影响,但针对无症状感染者的传播却很少采取干预措施。因此,准确预测流行趋势是一个相当关键和复杂的问题,许多类型的研究都致力于解决这一问题。本文通过在复杂网络中引入传统的 SEIR(易感-暴露-感染-移出)疾病传播模型,建立了一种新型的 COVID-19 传播模型,并基于传统的机器学习算法 TrustRank 提出了一种有效的预测算法,该算法可以预测人群接触网络中的无症状感染个体。我们的仿真结果表明,我们的方法在新发冠心病肺炎预测方面大大优于图神经网络算法,而且我们的方法还具有鲁棒性,即使在网络信息不完整的情况下也能获得良好的结果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Prediction of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections based on complex network.

Prediction of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections based on complex network.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) epidemic outbreak at the end of 2019 and threaten global public health, social stability, and economic development, which is characterized by highly contagious and asymptomatic infections. At present, governments around the world are taking decisive action to limit the human and economic impact of COVID-19, but very few interventions have been made to target the transmission of asymptomatic infected individuals. Thus, it is a quite crucial and complex problem to make accurate forecasts of epidemic trends, which many types of research dedicated to deal with it. In this article, we set up a novel COVID-19 transmission model by introducing traditional SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-removed) disease transmission models into complex network and propose an effective prediction algorithm based on the traditional machine learning algorithm TrustRank, which can predict asymptomatic infected individuals in a population contact network. Our simulation results show that our method largely outperforms the graph neural network algorithm for new coronary pneumonia prediction and our method is also robust and gives good results even if the network information is incomplete.

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来源期刊
Optimal Control Applications & Methods
Optimal Control Applications & Methods 工程技术-应用数学
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
11.10%
发文量
108
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Optimal Control Applications & Methods provides a forum for papers on the full range of optimal and optimization based control theory and related control design methods. The aim is to encourage new developments in control theory and design methodologies that will lead to real advances in control applications. Papers are also encouraged on the development, comparison and testing of computational algorithms for solving optimal control and optimization problems. The scope also includes papers on optimal estimation and filtering methods which have control related applications. Finally, it will provide a focus for interesting optimal control design studies and report real applications experience covering problems in implementation and robustness.
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