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引用次数: 0
摘要
当前的全球化经济环境使新兴市场经济体（EMEs）极易受到全球经济冲击的影响。在 Covid-19 大流行期间，新兴市场经济体面临着医疗成本增加和财政刺激需求增加的问题。此外，大多数新兴市场经济体经历了货币贬值、资本流动逆转、全球需求减少和国内收入大幅下降，导致主权债券风险溢价（SRP）可能上升。通过对 12 个国家进行动态面板估计，我们发现 Covid-19 大流行病主要通过国内生产总值增长和政治稳定指标对主权债券风险溢价产生影响。此外，我们还发现实际汇率和净出口与 GDP 的比率对主权债券风险溢价有显著的统计影响。
Assessing the Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Emerging Market Economies' (EMEs) Sovereign Bond Risk Premium and Fiscal Solvency.
The current globalized economic environment has made Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) highly exposed to global economic shocks. During the Covid-19 pandemic, EMEs have been facing increased health costs and heightened demand for fiscal stimulus. In addition, most EMEs experienced currency depreciation, reversal in capital flow, decrease in global demand and significant decline in domestic revenue, leading to a potential increase in sovereign bond risk premiums (SRP). Using dynamic panel estimations and focusing on 12 countries, we find that the Covid-19 pandemic impacts SRP primarily through GDP growth and political stability indicators. In addition, we find the real exchange rate and net export to GDP ratio have a statistically significant impact on sovereign bond risk premium.
期刊介绍：
The Eastern Economic Journal, a quarterly publication of the Eastern Economic Association, was established in 1973. The EEJ publishes papers written from every perspective, in all areas of economics and is committed to free and open intellectual inquiry from diverse philosophical perspectives. It welcomes manuscripts that are methodological and philosophical as well as empirical and theoretical. Readability and general interest are major factors in publication decision.
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