利用接触者追踪数据探索无症状病例的继发性传播

Q1 Mathematics
Ko Nakajo, Hiroshi Nishiura
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引用次数: 7

摘要

背景:无症状严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒-2 (SARS-CoV-2)感染个体可在不知情的情况下传播病毒,因此自大流行早期以来一直是公共卫生关注的焦点。了解病毒在无症状人群中的传播能力对于成功控制2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)至关重要。本研究旨在了解SARS-CoV-2在年轻无症状个体中的传播能力,并评估症状学是否与有症状感染与无症状感染的传播有关。方法:采用离散和双型分支过程模型,对2020年3月日本京都县大学生中首次发现的具有多传播链的SARS-CoV-2感染聚集性进行分析。假设由原发性症状或无症状病例引起的继发性病例的数量独立地遵循负二项分布,我们估计了与有症状病例相比,无症状病例的相对繁殖数。为了探讨症状学与有症状与无症状偶发感染传播之间的潜在关联,我们还估计了由原发性症状和无症状病例产生的继发性症状病例的比例。结果:有症状的原发病例的繁殖数估计为1.14(95%可信区间[CI]: 0.61-2.09)。无症状病例的相对繁殖数估计为0.19 (95% CI: 0.03-0.66),表明无症状原发性病例没有导致足够数量的继发感染来维持传播链。有症状的原发性病例没有明显倾向于优先产生有症状的继发性病例。结论:利用来自日本疫情早期传播网络的数据,我们成功地估计了无症状SARS-CoV-2感染病例的相对传播率为0.22。这些结果表明,鉴于检测能力有限,以症状指示病例为重点的合同追踪可能是合理的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Exploring secondary SARS-CoV-2 transmission from asymptomatic cases using contact tracing data.

Exploring secondary SARS-CoV-2 transmission from asymptomatic cases using contact tracing data.

Exploring secondary SARS-CoV-2 transmission from asymptomatic cases using contact tracing data.

Background: Individuals with asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection can propagate the virus unknowingly and thus have been a focus of public health attentions since the early stages of the pandemic. Understanding viral transmissibility among asymptomatic individuals is critical for successful control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present study aimed to understand SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility among young asymptomatic individuals and to assess whether symptomatology was associated with transmission of symptomatic vs. asymptomatic infections.

Methods: We analyzed one of the first-identified clusters of SARS-CoV-2 infections with multiple chains of transmission that occurred among university students in March 2020 in Kyoto prefecture, Japan, using discrete and two-type branching process models. Assuming that the number of secondary cases resulting from either primary symptomatic or asymptomatic cases independently followed negative binomial distributions, we estimated the relative reproduction numbers of an asymptomatic case compared with a symptomatic case. To explore the potential association between symptomatology and transmission of symptomatic vs. asymptomatic incident infections, we also estimated the proportion of secondary symptomatic cases produced by primary symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.

Results: The reproduction number for a symptomatic primary case was estimated at 1.14 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.61-2.09). The relative reproduction number for asymptomatic cases was estimated at 0.19 (95% CI: 0.03-0.66), indicating that asymptomatic primary cases did not result in sufficient numbers of secondary infections to maintain chains of transmission. There was no apparent tendency for symptomatic primary cases to preferentially produce symptomatic secondary cases.

Conclusions: Using data from a transmission network during the early epidemic in Japan, we successfully estimated the relative transmissibility of asymptomatic cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection at 0.22. These results suggest that contract tracing focusing on symptomatic index cases may be justified given limited testing capacity.

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来源期刊
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY-
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling is an open access peer-reviewed journal adopting a broad definition of "biology" and focusing on theoretical ideas and models associated with developments in biology and medicine. Mathematicians, biologists and clinicians of various specialisms, philosophers and historians of science are all contributing to the emergence of novel concepts in an age of systems biology, bioinformatics and computer modelling. This is the field in which Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling operates. We welcome submissions that are technically sound and offering either improved understanding in biology and medicine or progress in theory or method.
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