COVID-19的行为动力学:估计92个国家的漏报、多波和坚持疲劳

IF 1.7 3区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-03-16 DOI:10.1002/sdr.1673
Hazhir Rahmandad, Tse Yang Lim, John Sterman
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引用次数: 85

摘要

有效应对COVID-19大流行需要综合行为因素,如风险驱动的减少接触、改善治疗、无症状传播的依从性疲劳、疾病敏锐度和医院能力。我们建立了一个这样的模型,并对所有92个国家的可靠测试数据进行了估计。截至2020年12月22日,累计病例数和死亡人数估计分别是官方报告的7.03倍和1.44倍,感染致死率(IFR)为0.51%,随着时间的推移一直在下降。如果没有依从性疲劳,累积病例将降低47%。到2021年6月的情景表明,反应能力的适度改善可以减少约14%的病例和死亡,超过到那时为一半人口接种疫苗的影响。尽管各国的繁殖数量在1左右波动,但对风险的反应能力的差异解释了人均死亡率的两个数量级差异。一个公共的在线模拟器有助于未来几个月的情景分析。©2021系统动力学学会。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Behavioral dynamics of COVID-19: estimating underreporting, multiple waves, and adherence fatigue across 92 nations.

Effective responses to the COVID-19 pandemic require integrating behavioral factors such as risk-driven contact reduction, improved treatment, and adherence fatigue with asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, and hospital capacity. We build one such model and estimate it for all 92 nations with reliable testing data. Cumulative cases and deaths through 22 December 2020 are estimated to be 7.03 and 1.44 times official reports, yielding an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.51 percent, which has been declining over time. Absent adherence fatigue, cumulative cases would have been 47 percent lower. Scenarios through June 2021 show that modest improvement in responsiveness could reduce cases and deaths by about 14 percent, more than the impact of vaccinating half of the population by that date. Variations in responsiveness to risk explain two orders of magnitude difference in per-capita deaths despite reproduction numbers fluctuating around one across nations. A public online simulator facilitates scenario analysis over the coming months. © 2021 System Dynamics Society.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.60
自引率
8.30%
发文量
22
期刊介绍: The System Dynamics Review exists to communicate to a wide audience advances in the application of the perspectives and methods of system dynamics to societal, technical, managerial, and environmental problems. The Review publishes: advances in mathematical modelling and computer simulation of dynamic feedback systems; advances in methods of policy analysis based on information feedback and circular causality; generic structures (dynamic feedback systems that support particular widely applicable behavioural insights); system dynamics contributions to theory building in the social and natural sciences; policy studies and debate emphasizing the role of feedback and circular causality in problem behaviour.
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