用随机和确定性方法建模和预测COVID-19的传播:非洲和欧洲。

IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics
Advances in Difference Equations Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-01-20 DOI:10.1186/s13662-021-03213-2
Abdon Atangana, Seda İğret Araz
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引用次数: 78

摘要

利用从欧洲和非洲国家收集的现有数据,我们对截至2020年9月10日的未来每日死亡和感染人数进行了统计分析。我们使用许多现有的统计理论,对从两个大陆收集的数据进行了大量的统计分析。我们的预测显示,在最糟糕的情况下,欧洲可能出现第二波传播,非洲感染人数可能呈指数级增长。统计分析的投影导致我们引入一个扩展版本的井-blancmange函数,以进一步捕获具有分形性质的传播。考虑了具有9个子类的扩散数学模型,首先将其转化为一个随机系统,给出了存在唯一性。然后将模型推广到非局部算子的概念;由于非线性,提出了一种改进的数值格式,并用于数值模拟。所建议的数学模型能够在不久的将来预测两到三波的传播。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 with stochastic and deterministic approaches: Africa and Europe.

Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 with stochastic and deterministic approaches: Africa and Europe.

Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 with stochastic and deterministic approaches: Africa and Europe.

Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 with stochastic and deterministic approaches: Africa and Europe.

Using the existing collected data from European and African countries, we present a statistical analysis of forecast of the future number of daily deaths and infections up to 10 September 2020. We presented numerous statistical analyses of collected data from both continents using numerous existing statistical theories. Our predictions show the possibility of the second wave of spread in Europe in the worse scenario and an exponential growth in the number of infections in Africa. The projection of statistical analysis leads us to introducing an extended version of the well-blancmange function to further capture the spread with fractal properties. A mathematical model depicting the spread with nine sub-classes is considered, first converted to a stochastic system, where the existence and uniqueness are presented. Then the model is extended to the concept of nonlocal operators; due to nonlinearity, a modified numerical scheme is suggested and used to present numerical simulations. The suggested mathematical model is able to predict two to three waves of the spread in the near future.

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来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
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0
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The theory of difference equations, the methods used, and their wide applications have advanced beyond their adolescent stage to occupy a central position in applicable analysis. In fact, in the last 15 years, the proliferation of the subject has been witnessed by hundreds of research articles, several monographs, many international conferences, and numerous special sessions. The theory of differential and difference equations forms two extreme representations of real world problems. For example, a simple population model when represented as a differential equation shows the good behavior of solutions whereas the corresponding discrete analogue shows the chaotic behavior. The actual behavior of the population is somewhere in between. The aim of Advances in Difference Equations is to report mainly the new developments in the field of difference equations, and their applications in all fields. We will also consider research articles emphasizing the qualitative behavior of solutions of ordinary, partial, delay, fractional, abstract, stochastic, fuzzy, and set-valued differential equations. Advances in Difference Equations will accept high-quality articles containing original research results and survey articles of exceptional merit.
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