考虑活动性检验和时滞的疫苗供应链冷链运输复杂性分析

IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics
Advances in Difference Equations Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-01-09 DOI:10.1186/s13662-020-03173-z
Daoming Dai, Xuanyu Wu, Fengshan Si
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引用次数: 19

摘要

新冠肺炎疫苗研制工作受到世界各国高度关注。目前,多种新型冠状病毒疫苗已进入三期临床试验。然而,很难将COVID-19疫苗高效、安全地运送到受疫情影响的地区。本文主要研究由一个分销商和一个零售商(诊所或医院)组成的供应链模型中的疫苗运输问题,分销商从制造商处采购COVID-19疫苗,然后再将其转售给零售商。分销商检测疫苗的活性水平,零售商负责疫苗的运输。首先,建立了具有时滞的差分方程模型。其次,研究了时滞对疫苗供应链稳定性的影响。此外,我们探讨了分销商(或零售商)的决策调整速度对疫苗供应链稳定性的影响。最后,我们通过二维分岔图、最大李雅普诺夫指数、熵和引力域验证了理论结果。结果表明,当决策延迟时间或决策变量的调整速度超过一定阈值时,会对疫苗供应链系统的稳定性产生负面影响。系统的稳定域随着客户对冷链运输的敏感性降低而缩小,相反,随着客户对疫苗价格的敏感性降低而扩大。当疫苗供应链处于混沌状态时,外部控制对系统的效果优于内部控制。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Complexity analysis of cold chain transportation in a vaccine supply chain considering activity inspection and time-delay.

Complexity analysis of cold chain transportation in a vaccine supply chain considering activity inspection and time-delay.

Complexity analysis of cold chain transportation in a vaccine supply chain considering activity inspection and time-delay.

Complexity analysis of cold chain transportation in a vaccine supply chain considering activity inspection and time-delay.

The development of COVID-19 vaccine is highly concerned by all countries in the world. So far, many kinds of COVID-19 vaccines have entered phase III clinical trial. However, it is difficult to deliver COVID-19 vaccines efficiently and safely to the areas affected by the epidemic. This paper focuses on vaccine transportation in a supply chain model composed of one distributor and one retailer (clinic or hospital), in which the distributor procures COVID-19 vaccines from the manufacturer and then resells them to the retailer. Distributor detects the activity level of the vaccines, and retailer is responsible for transportation of the vaccines. Firstly, we establish a difference equations model with time-delay. Secondly, we investigate the impact of time-delay on the stability of vaccine supply chain. In addition, we explore the influence of decision adjustment speed of the distributor (or retailer) on the stability of vaccine supply chain. Finally, we verify the theoretical results by a two-dimensional bifurcation diagram, the largest Lyapunov exponent, entropy, and domain of attraction. The results show that when the decision delay-time or the adjustment speed of decision variables exceeds a certain threshold, it brings a negative impact on the stability of vaccine supply chain system. The stability domain of the system shrinks as customers' sensitivity to cold chain transportation decreases and by contrast expends as customers' sensitivity to vaccine prices decreases. When the vaccine supply chain is in a state of chaos, the effect of external control over the system is superior to that of internal control over the system.

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来源期刊
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审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The theory of difference equations, the methods used, and their wide applications have advanced beyond their adolescent stage to occupy a central position in applicable analysis. In fact, in the last 15 years, the proliferation of the subject has been witnessed by hundreds of research articles, several monographs, many international conferences, and numerous special sessions. The theory of differential and difference equations forms two extreme representations of real world problems. For example, a simple population model when represented as a differential equation shows the good behavior of solutions whereas the corresponding discrete analogue shows the chaotic behavior. The actual behavior of the population is somewhere in between. The aim of Advances in Difference Equations is to report mainly the new developments in the field of difference equations, and their applications in all fields. We will also consider research articles emphasizing the qualitative behavior of solutions of ordinary, partial, delay, fractional, abstract, stochastic, fuzzy, and set-valued differential equations. Advances in Difference Equations will accept high-quality articles containing original research results and survey articles of exceptional merit.
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