{"title":"中国对澳大利亚的影响:金融市场告诉我们什么?","authors":"Kerry Liu","doi":"10.1007/s12140-020-09346-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Australia-China relations, and especially Chinese influence in Australia, have been the subject of heated debate in Australia since 2016. The central issue is, how to balance concerns over Chinese influence in Australia with the economic benefits of Chinese trade and investment? This study-arguably the first of its kind-answers this question using rigorous empirical modelling. First, it uses Google Trends search results to measure Chinese influence in Australia. Second, it connects Chinese influence, as reflected in Google Trends search results, to financial markets, including stock markets, government bond markets and foreign exchange markets. Weekly data for January 2016-December 2019 are entered into an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model. The study finds that the effects of concerns over Chinese influence relate mainly to increased volatility of stock market indices and government bond yields, and downward pressure on the share prices of individual firms that are heavily exposed to Chinese markets. However, the overall effects appear to be minor or insignificant. The implications of these results are that China's economic coercion (if any) may not be effective, and Australia's responses to Chinese influence and interference (if any) may generate insignificant costs. Finally, this study makes original and significant academic contributions to academia by providing a novel framework for exploring international relations.</p>","PeriodicalId":53913,"journal":{"name":"East Asia","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s12140-020-09346-7","citationCount":"6","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Chinese Influence in Australia: What Do Financial Markets Tell Us?\",\"authors\":\"Kerry Liu\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s12140-020-09346-7\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Australia-China relations, and especially Chinese influence in Australia, have been the subject of heated debate in Australia since 2016. The central issue is, how to balance concerns over Chinese influence in Australia with the economic benefits of Chinese trade and investment? This study-arguably the first of its kind-answers this question using rigorous empirical modelling. First, it uses Google Trends search results to measure Chinese influence in Australia. Second, it connects Chinese influence, as reflected in Google Trends search results, to financial markets, including stock markets, government bond markets and foreign exchange markets. Weekly data for January 2016-December 2019 are entered into an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model. The study finds that the effects of concerns over Chinese influence relate mainly to increased volatility of stock market indices and government bond yields, and downward pressure on the share prices of individual firms that are heavily exposed to Chinese markets. However, the overall effects appear to be minor or insignificant. The implications of these results are that China's economic coercion (if any) may not be effective, and Australia's responses to Chinese influence and interference (if any) may generate insignificant costs. Finally, this study makes original and significant academic contributions to academia by providing a novel framework for exploring international relations.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":53913,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"East Asia\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s12140-020-09346-7\",\"citationCount\":\"6\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"East Asia\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12140-020-09346-7\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2020/9/7 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"AREA STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"East Asia","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12140-020-09346-7","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2020/9/7 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AREA STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Chinese Influence in Australia: What Do Financial Markets Tell Us?
Australia-China relations, and especially Chinese influence in Australia, have been the subject of heated debate in Australia since 2016. The central issue is, how to balance concerns over Chinese influence in Australia with the economic benefits of Chinese trade and investment? This study-arguably the first of its kind-answers this question using rigorous empirical modelling. First, it uses Google Trends search results to measure Chinese influence in Australia. Second, it connects Chinese influence, as reflected in Google Trends search results, to financial markets, including stock markets, government bond markets and foreign exchange markets. Weekly data for January 2016-December 2019 are entered into an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model. The study finds that the effects of concerns over Chinese influence relate mainly to increased volatility of stock market indices and government bond yields, and downward pressure on the share prices of individual firms that are heavily exposed to Chinese markets. However, the overall effects appear to be minor or insignificant. The implications of these results are that China's economic coercion (if any) may not be effective, and Australia's responses to Chinese influence and interference (if any) may generate insignificant costs. Finally, this study makes original and significant academic contributions to academia by providing a novel framework for exploring international relations.
期刊介绍:
East Asia, formerly the Journal of Northeast Asian Studies, is the first journal to examine the interplay between politics and culture underlying major developments in China, Japan, Korea, and the Pacific Rim. It is distinguished by a unique, transnational approach to political, economic, and cultural issues. Focusing on the continuing influence these nations exert upon each other, this international quarterly examines the competition, assimilation, and tensions that now shape events in the region, and will for years to come.