Jorge Homero Wilches Visbal, Midian Clara Castillo Pedraza
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引用次数: 0
摘要
2019 年 12 月,中国武汉市发现一起人畜共患急性呼吸道疾病疫情。疫情的传染源是一种从未见过的冠状病毒。此后,Covid-19疫情迅速蔓延至全球200多个国家。为了将病毒的破坏性影响降到最低,各国采取了各种流行病学措施,这些措施涉及巨大的经济开支,并大量利用媒体向全民解释这些措施。为了预测和缓解传染病事件,人们使用了各种流行病学模型,如 SIR、SEIR、MSIR 和 MSEIR。其中,使用最广泛的是 SIR 模型,该模型的基础是利用微分方程分析易受感染的个体(S)向受感染个体的感染状态(I)的转变,最后向康复(治愈或死亡)状态(R)的转变。本文的目的是在数学上发展 SIR 模型,并将其应用于预测圣玛尔塔市(哥伦比亚)Covid-19 大流行病的进程,以了解世界各国在抗击该流行病的斗争中采取的若干遏制措施背后的原因。
[Mathematical approach of the SIR epidemiological model for the comprehension of the containment measures against the Covid-19.]
In December 2019, an acute respiratory disease outbreak from zoonotic origin was detected in the city of Wuhan, China. The outbreak's infectious agent was a type of coronavirus never seen. Thenceforth, the Covid-19 disease has rapidly spread to more than 200 countries around the world. To minimize the devastating effects of the virus, the States have adopted epidemiological measures of various kinds that involved enormous economic expenses and the massive use of the media to explain the measures to the entire population. For the prediction and mitigation of infectious events, various epidemiological models, such as SIR, SEIR, MSIR and MSEIR, are used. Among them, the most widely used is the SIR model, which is based on the analysis of the transition of individuals susceptible to infection (S) to the state of infected individuals that infect (I) and, finally, to that of recovered (cured or deceased) (R), by using differential equations. The objective of this article was the mathematical development of the SIR model and its application to predict the course of the Covid-19 pandemic in the city of Santa Marta (Colombia), in order to understand the reason behind several of the measures of containment adopted by the States of the world in the fight against the pandemic.