COVID-19 的动态变化与检疫和隔离。

IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics
Advances in Difference Equations Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-08-14 DOI:10.1186/s13662-020-02882-9
Muhammad Altaf Khan, Abdon Atangana, Ebraheem Alzahrani, Fatmawati
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本文中,我们建立了一个新的数学模型,用于分析 COVID-19 的动态变化,包括检疫和隔离。首先,我们对模型的表述进行了简要讨论,并提供了相关的数学结果。然后,我们考虑了 Atangana-Baleanu 意义上的分形-分形导数,并对模型进行了广义化。利用广义模型获得其稳定性结果。我们证明,如果 R 0 1,模型是局部渐近稳定的。此外,我们还考虑了中国自 2020 年 1 月 11 日至 4 月 9 日报告的真实案例。报告病例被用来获取真实参数和特定时期的基本繁殖数 R 0 ≈ 6.6361。报告的案例数据与经典阶次和分形-分形阶次的模型进行了对比。结果表明,分形-分数阶模型与报告案例的拟合度最高。分形数学模型是通过一种基于牛顿方法的新颖数值技术求解的,这种方法既实用又可靠。本文简要讨论了使用新型数值程序得出的图形结果。此外,还探讨了一些对消除社会疾病具有重要意义的关键参数。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantined and isolation.

The dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantined and isolation.

The dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantined and isolation.

The dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantined and isolation.

In the present paper, we formulate a new mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantine and isolation. Initially, we provide a brief discussion on the model formulation and provide relevant mathematical results. Then, we consider the fractal-fractional derivative in Atangana-Baleanu sense, and we also generalize the model. The generalized model is used to obtain its stability results. We show that the model is locally asymptotically stable if R 0 < 1 . Further, we consider the real cases reported in China since January 11 till April 9, 2020. The reported cases have been used for obtaining the real parameters and the basic reproduction number for the given period, R 0 6.6361 . The data of reported cases versus model for classical and fractal-factional order are presented. We show that the fractal-fractional order model provides the best fitting to the reported cases. The fractional mathematical model is solved by a novel numerical technique based on Newton approach, which is useful and reliable. A brief discussion on the graphical results using the novel numerical procedures are shown. Some key parameters that show significance in the disease elimination from the society are explored.

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来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The theory of difference equations, the methods used, and their wide applications have advanced beyond their adolescent stage to occupy a central position in applicable analysis. In fact, in the last 15 years, the proliferation of the subject has been witnessed by hundreds of research articles, several monographs, many international conferences, and numerous special sessions. The theory of differential and difference equations forms two extreme representations of real world problems. For example, a simple population model when represented as a differential equation shows the good behavior of solutions whereas the corresponding discrete analogue shows the chaotic behavior. The actual behavior of the population is somewhere in between. The aim of Advances in Difference Equations is to report mainly the new developments in the field of difference equations, and their applications in all fields. We will also consider research articles emphasizing the qualitative behavior of solutions of ordinary, partial, delay, fractional, abstract, stochastic, fuzzy, and set-valued differential equations. Advances in Difference Equations will accept high-quality articles containing original research results and survey articles of exceptional merit.
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